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Turnbull supported as Liberal Leader by 64% while Shorten (9%) is fourth choice as ALP Leader behind Plibersek, Albanese & Swan

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights this week, October 20-22, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross section of 574 electors.
A telephone Morgan Poll over three nights this week (October 20-22, 2015) finds:

  • Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is again clearly preferred as Liberal Leader by 64% of electors (up 20% since July 20-22, 2015) well ahead of Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop 12% (down 3%) and former Prime Minister Tony Abbott 8% (down 5%).

  • L-NP voters easily prefer Turnbull as Liberal Party Leader 70% (up 38%), ahead of Tony Abbott 12% (down 14%), Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop 7% (down 9%) and Treasurer Scott Morrison 5% (down 8%).

  • Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek 27% (up 1%) of electors is still the preferred Labor Leader ahead of Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese 23% (up 4%), former Treasurer Wayne Swan 10% (unchanged) and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 9% (down 3%).

  • Tanya Plibersek 34% (up 2%) is also preferred amongst ALP supporters ahead of Anthony Albanese 21% (up 5%), Wayne Swan 12% (up 3%) and Bill Shorten 10% (down 7%).

  • If Mr Turnbull were to resign as Prime Minister tomorrow, electors clearly prefer Julie Bishop as Prime Minister 46% (up 27%) from Scott Morrison 15% (up 7%). Their support levels are similar amongst L-NP voters with Bishop 46% (up 22%) preferred to Scott Morrison 21% (unchanged).

  • If Labor Leader Bill Shorten were to resign for any reason, Tanya Plibersek 28% (down 1%) is preferred as ALP Leader ahead of Anthony Albanese 24% (up 3%) and Wayne Swan 11% (down 1%). Their support amongst ALP voters favours Plibersek 36% (down 2%) over Albanese 23% (up 3%) and Swan 13% (up 2%).

Gary Morgan says:

“New Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is clearly the preferred Liberal Leader 64% (up 20% since July) ahead of Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop 12% (down 3%) and the man he deposed just over a month ago, Tony Abbott 8% (down 5%).

“However, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has slipped even further – now fourth behind his Labor colleagues as preferred Labor Leader. Shorten 9% (down 3%) trails Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek 27% (up 1%), former leadership challenger Anthony Albanese 23% (up 4%) and even former Treasurer Wayne Swan 10% (unchanged).

“L-NP supporters, traditionally former Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s strongest supporters, have swung decisively behind the new Prime Minister. L-NP supporters now strongly prefer Turnbull 70% (up 38%) ahead of Abbott 12% (down 14%) and Julie Bishop 7% (down 9%).

“However, the news is not so good for Shorten – who is also the fourth choice of ALP supporters. Once again Plibersek 34% (up 2%) leads clearly ahead of Albanese 21% (up 5%), Swan 12% (up 3%) and Shorten 10% (down 7%). Nevertheless, despite his falling levels of support, Shorten’s position as Labor Leader is guaranteed until the next Federal Election under new rules adopted by the Federal ALP after the fiascos of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years. Shorten can’t be removed from the leadership unless he agrees to resign his post.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights this week, October 20-22, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross section of 574 electors.

For the ‘poll-watchers’ out there this latest telephone Morgan Poll revealed a two-party preferred lead for the L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5% (on October 13-15 the telephone Morgan Poll showed the L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46%) based on how a cross-section of 574 Australian electors said they would vote – similar to the latest multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends which showed the L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44% on a two-party preferred basis.


Preferred Coalition Leader

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

Tony Abbott as Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull
as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Jan 12-13,
2015

April 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Oct 20-22,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

36

38

44

64

70

65

59

53

J. Bishop

26

27

15

12

7

13

25

17

Abbott

14

12

13

8

12

4

1

15

Morrison

2

5

5

4

5

7

1

2

Joyce

4

3

5

3

3

4

1

2

Pyne

2

2

1

1

*

2

2

2

Robb

*

*

*

-

-

-

-

-

Hockey

4

5

5

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Someone else

1

1

1

*

-

*

-

-

Can’t say

11

7

11

8

3

5

11

9

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%. Former Treasurer Joe Hockey was removed from this question following his decision to resign from his seat in Parliament made after he left the front-bench.

 

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Malcolm Turnbull

Electors who preferred Malcolm Turnbull were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Julie Bishop, Scott Morrison, Tony Abbott, Andrew Robb, Christopher Pyne and Barnaby Joyce?

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Malcolm Turnbull.

Tony Abbott as Prime Minister

Malcolm Turnbull
as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Jan 12-13,
2015

April 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Oct 20-22,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

38

40

47

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

J. Bishop

32

30

19

46

46

43

61

35

Morrison

3

7

8

15

21

12

7

11

Abbott

n/a

n/a

n/a

10

15

6

1

15

Joyce

4

4

7

7

7

10

2

2

Pyne

3

2

2

4

2

7

5

2

Robb

*

1

*

2

1

2

4

3

Hockey

6

6

6

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Someone else

1

1

1

1

1

*

-

-

Can’t say

13

9

10

15

7

20

20

32

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%. Former Treasurer Joe Hockey was removed from this question following his decision to resign from his seat in Parliament made after he left the front-bench.


Preferred Labor Leader

Electors were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

Prime Minister Tony Abbott

Malcolm Turnbull
as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Jan 12-13,
2015

April 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Oct 20-22,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Plibersek

18

23

26

27

23

34

36

13

Albanese

10

13

19

23

26

21

29

10

Swan

10

10

10

10

10

12

4

13

Shorten

25

21

12

9

7

10

13

16

Bowen

6

5

7

5

7

4

-

12

Burke

5

4

4

5

7

3

5

5

Macklin

5

4

4

4

3

2

6

7

Someone else

2

1

2

2

1

3

2

4

Can’t say

19

19

16

15

16

11

5

20

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Preferred Labor Leader other than Bill Shorten

Electors who preferred Bill Shorten as ALP Leader were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Anthony Albanese, Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin, Chris Bowen, Tanya Plibersek or Tony Burke?

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Bill Shorten.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott

Malcolm Turnbull
as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Jan 12-13,
2015

April 21-22,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Oct 20-22,
2015

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Plibersek

21

26

29

28

23

36

39

13

Albanese

14

16

21

24

27

23

29

13

Swan

16

15

12

11

11

13

4

17

Bowen

9

8

7

6

8

5

4

12

Burke

7

5

5

6

8

4

6

5

Macklin

7

6

4

5

4

4

7

7

Someone else

2

1

2

2

1

3

3

4

Can’t say

24

23

20

18

18

12

8

29

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

 

For further information:

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

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+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093