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Federal Voting Intention virtually unchanged - L-NP (56.5%) leads ALP (43.5%) – biggest lead for L-NP since April 2013

Finding No. 6536 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends October 24/25, 31 & November 1, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,262 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
In early November L-NP support is 56.5% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 43.5% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP rose 0.5% to 47% and ALP support rose 1% to 28.5%.

Support for the Greens fell to 14.5% (down 1%) while Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 1% (up 0.5%), while Independents/ Others are at 8% (down 0.5%).

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, October 24/25, 31 & November 1, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,262 Australian electors.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged this week at 112 with 48% (up 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ (the highest for this indicator for two years since mid-November 2013) and 36% (up 1%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the L-NP. Men: L-NP 58.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 41.5% (up1.5%); Women: L-NP 54% (up 2%) cf. ALP 46% (down 2%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem is convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with 18-24yr olds: ALP 59% cf. L- NP 41% and leads the L-NP amongst 25-34yr olds: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%. However, the L-NP leads comfortably with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds favour the L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5% while 50-64yr olds favour the L-NP 60.5% cf. ALP 39.5% and those aged 65+ easily favour the L-NP 65% cf. ALP 35%.

Analysis by States

The L-NP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Tasmania: L-NP 63% cf. ALP 37%, Queensland: LNP 59% cf. ALP 41%, New South Wales: L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%, Western Australia: L-NP 58% cf. ALP 42%,  South Australia: L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%, and Victoria: L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the L-NP (55%) cf. ALP (45%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.   

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"Today’s Morgan Poll shows the Turnbull Government’s honeymoon continues (L-NP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%) with few, if any, positive suggestions from the Opposition on how they would manage the challenging economic conditions due to the fall in commodity prices.

"However the Coalition’s suggested policy of increasing the GST to 15% is capable of dividing the nation unless handled correctly. While it is obvious an increase in the GST could be made fair and would then be supported by a large majority of the electorate – irrespective of what Bill Shorten and his colleagues say – the problems centre around what taxes are dropped or changed, how much compensation is made for different welfare payments and how the ‘spoils’ are fairly divided between the States.

"Real unemployment and under-employment is Australia’s major problem so payroll tax should be eliminated by the States. The Federal Government must then curtail middle class welfare 'rorts'; and to satisfy the electorate all companies/businesses, both Australian and overseas, must be made to pay their appropriate share of tax!

"For a fair split of GST revenue the GST distribution model needs to be significantly changed so the States of Western Australia & Victoria are NOT significantly disadvantaged, as now, by the outdated formula used by the Federal Government.

"Irrespective of debating an increase in the GST the Federal Government should immediately introduce reforms to eliminate the ‘cash economy’ and free-up the labour market – the rorts uncovered at 7-Eleven and 'illegal' union deals with big business should be at the top of the Turnbull Government’s agenda.

"By implementing reforms to free-up the Australian labour market the new Turnbull Government will have a much greater and more positive impact on the Australian economy overall - including increasing employment growth - than increasing the rate of the GST to 15%.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6536 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends October 24/25, 31 & November 1, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,262 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - November 2, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0