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NZ voting intention virtually unchanged in November before controversy this week after PM John Key accuses Opposition Leader Andrew Little of backing rapists

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 862 electors in November 2015. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.
During November support for National fell 1% to 49% still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll conducted before controversy erupted this week after PM John Key accused Opposition Leader Andrew Little of backing rapists in a debate about New Zealanders convicted of serious crimes facing deportation from Australia. If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be easily re-elected.

Support for the National partners the Maori Party improved to 2% (up 1.5%) while the other partners were unchanged; Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support is now at 29.5% (up 0.5%), Greens 12% (up 0.5%) but support for NZ First decreased to 6% (down 0.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 0.5% (unchanged), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 1%).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has jumped to 131.5pts (up 9.5pts) in November. An increasing majority of NZ electors 60% (up 7%) say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 28.5% (down 2.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is still far higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is at 112pts.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“The governing National 49% (down 1% in November) has retained a strong lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%) before controversy erupted in New Zealand Parliament this week after Prime Minister John Key accused Opposition Leader Andrew Little of backing rapists.

“The Parliamentary debate was sparked following a riot involving convicted New Zealand criminals facing deportation from Australia being held in the Christmas Island detention centre. In the wake of the exchange a dozen women Labour & Greens MPs were ejected or walked out after accusing Key of over-stepping the mark with his comments. Key has not backed down since, refusing to apologise for causing offence claiming he was the only person actually standing up for the victims of crime.

“The better news for Key is the strong increase in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – now 131.5 (up 9.5pts) in November which has been matched by a large jump for the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating – now 122.7 (up 7.8pts) – now at its highest since May 2015. The strong performance of both of these indicators reflects well on National and John Key’s most important asset – a reputation for good economic management and a healthy and growing New Zealand economy.”

 

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 862 electors in November 2015. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (down 0.5%) didn’t name a party.



For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0