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Federal Voting Intention virtually unchanged. L-NP (56%) cf. ALP (44%); Confidence in Turnbull Government jumps – highest since March 2011

Finding No. 6559 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends November 7/8 & 14/15, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,167 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.0% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.
In mid-November L-NP support is 56% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 44% (up 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.

Primary support fell for both major parties with support for the L-NP 46% (down 1%) and ALP 28% (down 0.5%). Support for the Greens was unchanged at 14.5% while Katter’s Australian Party is 2% (up 1% to the highest since January 2015), Palmer United Party is 1% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (up 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped this week to 119.5 (up 7.5pts and the highest since March 2011) with 50.5% (up 2.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 31% (down 5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The jump in Roy Morgan Government Confidence has been matched by strong increases in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating to 116.6 (up 11.3pts since Turnbull became Prime Minister) and Roy Morgan Business Confidence – now at 119.3 – its highest since November 2014.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, November 7/8 & 14/15, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,167 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the L-NP. Men: L-NP 57% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 43% (up 1.5%); Women: L-NP 55% (up 1%) cf. ALP 45% (down 1%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem is convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with 18-24yr olds: ALP 57% cf. L- NP 43%, however the L-NP now leads amongst 25-34yr olds: L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%. Also, the L-NP leads comfortably with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds favour the L-NP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5% while 50-64yr olds favour the L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44% and those aged 65+ easily favour the L-NP 64% cf. ALP 36%.

Analysis by States

The L-NP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Western Australia: L-NP 63% cf. ALP 37%, South Australia: L-NP 59.5% cf. ALP 40.5%, New South Wales: L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%, Queensland: LNP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5%, Tasmania: L-NP 55% cf. ALP 45% and Victoria: L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the L-NP (55%) cf. ALP (45%) – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.   

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"Today’s Morgan Poll shows the Turnbull Government’s honeymoon continues (L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%) as the world responds to the devastating terrorist attacks in Paris over the weekend. The good news for the Turnbull Government this week is the increasing confidence amongst Australians across a range of indicators.

“The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 119.5 (up 7.5pts) – it’s highest rating for well over four years since March 2011, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is now at 116.6 – its highest since January 2014 and Roy Morgan Business Confidence is at 119.3 in October – its highest for a year since November 2014.

“The positive impact on Confidence since Turnbull became Prime Minister gives Turnbull the political capital to make the contentious reforming decisions the Australian economy requires to deal with the end of the commodities boom and also the closure of the Australian car manufacturing industry over the next two years.

“World leaders, including Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, are currently meeting as part of the G20 in Turkey. Normally the G20 primarily concentrates on economic issues although the atrocity in Paris on Friday evening, which has left more than 130 civilians dead and around 350 injured, has clearly been at the top of the agenda at the G20 gathering of leaders.

 “The strong lift in confidence around Australia gives the Turnbull Government the mandate to make the tough decisions about whether or not Australia should commit troops to any international coalition aimed at defeating the Islamic State (ISIS) and affiliated terrorist groups in Iraq & Syria over the next few months as Western nations in particular seek to make the most effective and productive response to the horrific Paris terrorist attacks.”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6559 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends November 7/8 & 14/15, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,167 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.0% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - November 16, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0