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ANZ-Roy Morgan Thai Consumer Confidence: Consumer sentiment improves slightly to 112.3
November 25 2015
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Index is based on 1,000 telephone interviews conducted throughout Thailand. Men and women aged 14 and over were randomly selected during the month of November 2015.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Index increased slightly to 112.3 in November (up 0.5pts m/m), the highest since April 2015 (114.4). The index is also above its long-term average of 111.0, but remains 4.3pts lower than the same time a year ago (Nov 14:116.6).
ANZ Chief Economist, South Asia, ASEAN & Pacific, Glenn Maguire says:
- In terms of personal finances, 29% (down 2ppts from last month) of the respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than the same time last year. Meanwhile, 37% (down 1ppt) said their families are ‘worse off’, the lowest since March 2015.
- 51% (up 1ppt) of the respondents said they expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, the highest since April 2015. In contrast, 17% (unchanged) expect to be ‘worse off’.
- When thinking of future economic conditions in Thailand, 49% (up 2ppts) expect the local economy to have ‘good times’ financially over the next 12 months compared to 30% (unchanged) who expect ‘bad times’.
- Thai respondents are generally very positive about the long term. A strong majority of 70% (down 1ppt) of the respondents expect the local economy to have ‘good times’ in the next five years. Meanwhile, 8% (unchanged) expect ‘bad times’, the lowest since January 2015.
- 19% (down 1ppt) of respondents said ‘now is a good time’ to buy major household items whereas 65% (down 2ppts) felt ‘now is a bad time’. However, the latter has reached its lowest level since April 2015.
“Like the economy, consumer confidence in Thailand appears to have turned the corner and it seems that the bottom in both the economic cycle and consumer confidence are now in place. The continuation of the multi-month recovery in sentiment should prelude a recovery in the economy itself, given private consumption is more than 50% of GDP.
"While 49% of Thai consumers hold positive views about the domestic economy over the next 12 months, a remarkably high 70% of respondents are also sanguine about Thailand’s economic prospects over the next five years, with only 8% expecting ‘bad times’.
"There are clearly strong medium-term anchors to confidence in Thailand that an extended period of economic underperformance and political stalemate have not unsettled. With the Thai economy’s better than expected performance during Q3, we believe that policy dynamics could change in the coming months. Monetary policy is likely to take a back seat to fiscal policy, particularly given the various fiscal stimulus measures that have been rolled out and appear to have bolstered sentiment. Although the risk of a December rate cut cannot be entirely ruled out and the central bank will remain dovish over the medium term, the balance of probabilities now appears to favour an extended period of unchanged monetary policy as confidence and a more generalised recovery continue to unfold.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Thailand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - November 2015.
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The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
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