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Federal Voting Intention unchanged. L-NP (56%) cf. ALP (44%); Confidence in Turnbull Government up again – highest since March 2011

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, November 21/22 & 28/29, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,500 Australian electors.

In late-November L-NP support is unchanged at 56% cf. ALP 44% on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.

Primary support was up slightly for both major parties with support for the L-NP 46.5% (up 0.5%) and ALP 28.5% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens was down 0.5% to 14% while Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (down 1%), Palmer United Party is 1% (unchanged), while Independents/ Others are at 9% (up 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up this week to 122 (up 2.5pts and the highest since March 2011) with 51.5% (up 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 29.5% (down 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, November 21/22 & 28/29, 2015, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,500 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows a majority of both genders supporting the L-NP. Men: L-NP 57.5% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 42.5% (down 0.5%); Women: L-NP 54.5% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 45.5% (up 0.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem is convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with 18-24yr olds: ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40% and the ALP now leads amongst 25-34yr olds: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%. However, the L-NP leads comfortably with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds favour the L-NP 60.5% cf. ALP 39.5% while 50-64yr olds favour the L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43% and those aged 65+ easily favour the L-NP 64.5% cf. ALP 35.5%.

Analysis by States

The L-NP now has a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Western Australia: L-NP 60.5% cf. ALP 39.5%, New South Wales: L-NP 57% cf. ALP 43%, South Australia: L-NP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%, Queensland: LNP 55% cf. ALP 45%, Victoria: L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46% and Tasmania: L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the L-NP (55%) cf. ALP (45%) – this is largely because Greens voters are now preferring Turnbull’s L-NP at a greater rate than at the last election – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.     

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"Today’s Morgan Poll shows the Turnbull Government’s honeymoon continuing (L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%) as Australia heads towards Christmas. This week Prime Minister Turnbull has travelled to the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Malta – his first meeting with the Queen since becoming Prime Minister, and on to the United Nations Climate Conference in Paris.

“However, despite the issues of Global Warming and terrorism dominating the news headlines lately, Turnbull’s most important task as Prime Minister is to ensure a growing Australian economy which provides gainful employment to as many Australians as possible. Ultimately it is job creation and sustainable economic growth in Australia which will decide the success or otherwise of Turnbull’s Prime Ministership.

“To be a successful Prime Minister Turnbull needs to take advantage of the boost to confidence his ascension to the top job has created – this week the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is at 122 – the highest it’s been since March 2011 and not allow Labor and the Greens to obstruct the implementation of overdue reforms to the Australian economy. If they continue to hold-up needed reforms, Turnbull must bypass this ‘blackmail’ and let Australian electors decide by calling an election early in 2016.

“Moreover, to truly tackle unemployment in Australia, Turnbull and his Government must not fall into the same trap as his predecessor Prime Minister John Howard. Howard insisted on quoting the wrong ABS unemployment figure (5.9% in October) even as the ABS unemployment figure diverged from the Roy Morgan true unemployment figure (8.8% in October).

“The decision to quote the ABS unemployment figure allows for some good news short-term, but it also indicates to Australians at large that the political leadership is ‘out of touch’ with what is really happening ‘on the ground’ around Australia. When asked which figure represents the true level of unemployment in Australia respondents consistently say that the Roy Morgan unemployment figure (60% in April 2015) is ‘closer to reality’ than the ABS unemployment figure (29%; and a further 11% can’t say).

“Not one Federal Member of Parliament ‘questions’ the unrealistic ABS unemployment figure – which counts someone as employed who is working only one hour a week in the reference week and this is a large part of the reason why so many Australians regard the political class in Australia of existing in an alternate reality to most Australians."

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6579 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends November 21/22 & 28/29, 2015 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,500 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - November 30, 2015

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0