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Employment at record high – 11.8 million Australians employed

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 460,048 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – November 2015 and includes 3,941 face-to-face interviews in November 2015.

But 2.5 million Australians are unemployed or under-employed in November as a wave of students hit the jobs market

  • A record 12,954,000 Australians are in the workforce (up 297,000 since November 2014) and a record 11,768,000 Australians are employed (up a large 372,000 since November 2014);

  • 7,576,000 Australians are employed full-time (up 22,000 since November 2014);

  • A record 4,192,000 Australians are employed part-time (up 349,000 since November 2014);

  • 1,186,000 Australians are looking for work: 9.2% of the workforce – down 74,000  since November 2014 and the unemployment rate is down 0.8%;

  • A record 1,350,000 Australians are under-employed – working part-time and looking for more hours: 10.4% of the workforce  – up 119,000 (or 0.7%) since November 2014;

  • Now 2,536,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed: 19.6% of the workforce – up 45,000 (but down 0.1% due to the growing workforce) since November 2014.

  • This month’s increase from 8.8% to 9.2% means the latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is now 3.3% higher than the figure currently quoted by the ABS for October 2015 (5.9%).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2014

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan-Mar 2014

2,532

20.0

1,489

11.7

844

645

1,043

8.2

Apr-Jun 2014

2,360

18.9

1,273

10.2

638

635

1,087

8.7

Jul-Sep 2014

2,237

18.2

1,179

9.6

594

585

1,058

8.6

Oct-Dec 2014

2,449

19.6

1,251

10.0

559

692

1,198

9.6

2015

Jan-Mar 2015

2,384

18.9

1,327

10.5

656

672

1,057

8.4

Apr-Jun 2015

2,359

18.7

1,263

10.0

618

645

1,096

8.7

Jul-Sep 2015

2,061

16.2

1,109

8.7

518

591

952

7.5

Months

October 2014

2,207

18.4

1,090

9.1

461

629

1,117

9.3

November 2014

2,491

19.7

1,260

10.0

564

696

1,231

9.7

December 2014

2,648

20.6

1,402

10.9

653

749

1,246

9.7

January 2015

2,266

18.0

1,233

9.8

635

598

1,033

8.2

February 2015

2,542

20.3

1,381

11.0

590

791

1,161

9.3

March 2015

2,344

18.5

1,368

10.8

742

626

976

7.7

April 2015

2,446

19.4

1,309

10.4

656

653

1,137

9.0

May 2015

2,310

18.5

1,289

10.3

646

643

1,021

8.2

June 2015

2,321

18.2

1,192

9.3

552

640

1,129

8.9

July 2015

2,074

16.4

1,097

8.7

525

572

977

7.7

August 2015

2,117

16.6

1,173

9.2

548

625

944

7.4

September 2015

1,994

15.6

1,058

8.3

482

576

936

7.3

October 2015

2,198

17.4

1,110

8.8

464

646

1,088

8.6

November 2015

2,536

19.6

1,186

9.2

623

563

1,350

10.4

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

Gary Morgan says:

“In November, a record number of Australians, 11,768,000, were in employment – either full time (7,576,000) or part-time (4,192,000) – but this was not enough to keep up with the growing workforce. Given the seasonal nature of employment and the workforce as new students hit the employment market, the number of workers unemployed and under-employed also increased. Unemployment increased 76,000 in a month to 1,186,000 and under-employment increased a large 262,000 to 1,350,000.

“Although Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has gained popular support amongst the Australian electors (L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44% according to last week’s Morgan Poll), the L-NP has not gained majority support among young electors 18-24yr olds favour the ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40% and 25-34yr olds favour the ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%. For the record; the employment situation for students over the next few months is crucial for the Federal Government.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 460,048 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – November 2015 and includes 3,941 face-to-face interviews in November 2015.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results.)


For further information

Contact

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2015)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2015)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2015)

Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment - November 2015 - 9.2%

Roy Morgan Quarterly Unemployment Estimate - September Quarter 2015 - 8.7%

Roy Morgan Monthly Under-employment - November 2015 - 19.6%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.