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Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) scores highly in South Australia while ALP vote down in Victoria but still maintains strong lead

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between December 4-7, 2015 with a cross-section of 4,961 Australian electors including 1,084 New South Wales electors, 1,082 Victorian electors, 929 Queensland electors, 679 South Australian electors, 487 Western Australian electors and 369 Tasmanian electors.

In South Australia the new Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) party is supported by 18% of South Australian electors after being included on the Morgan Poll State voting intention survey for the first time. In South Australia the L-NP opposition has strengthened it’s lead over the Weatherill ALP Government: L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46%.

ALP support has dropped in Victoria but the Andrews Government still maintains a strong lead: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%, and Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews 64% (up 0.5%) is still clearly preferred over Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 36% (down 0.5%).

This Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted in early December with a representative cross-section of 4,961 Australian electors.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: L-NP would win an Election easily

2PP: L-NP 54% (up 3% since October 9-15, 2015) cf. ALP 46% (down 3%)

Primary vote: L-NP 37% (down 4.5%), ALP 26% (down 7.5%), Xenophon 18% (n/a), Greens 10% (down 2.5%), Family First 5.5% (up 0.5%), and Independents/ Others 3.5% (n/a).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steven Marshall (Liberal):
Mr. Weatherill 52.5% (down 7%) cf. Mr. Marshall 47.5% (up 7%); Lead to Mr Weatherill 5% (down 14%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 11.9% (up 2.3% since July – September 2015) and under-employment is 7.6% (up 0.4%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 19.5% (up 2.7%). (Interviewed September - November 2015).

South Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election comfortably

2PP: ALP 53.5% (down 2% since October 9-15, 2015) cf. L-NP 46.5% (up 2%).

Primary vote: L-NP 40.5% (up 1.5%), ALP 38% (down 2%), Greens 13.5% (down 1%), Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%), Country Alliance 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 5% (up 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal):
Mr. Andrews 64% (up 0.5%) cf. Mr. Guy 36% (down 0.5%); Lead to Mr. Andrews 28% (up 1%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 8.3% (up 2% since August – September 2015) and under-employment is 9.6% (up 1.3%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 17.9% (up 3.3%). (Interviewed October – November 2015).

Victorian State Election is due to be held in November 2018.


NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win an Election easily

2PP: L-NP 60.5% (unchanged since October 9-15, 2015) cf. ALP 39.5% (unchanged).

Primary vote: L-NP 52% (down 2%), ALP 22.5% (down 2%), Greens 15% (up 1.5%), Christian Democrats 3.5% (up 1%) and Independents/ Others 7% (up 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 72.5% (down 2%) cf. Mr. Foley 27.5% (up 2%); Lead to Mr. Baird 45% (down 4%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 8.8% (up 0.2% since August – September 2015) and under-employment is 9.7% (up 2.2%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 18.5% (up 2.4%). (Interviewed October – November 2015).

New South Wales State Election is due to be held in March 2019.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 50.5% (up 2% since October 9-15, 2015) cf. L-NP 49.5% (down 2%).

Primary vote: Liberal 35% (down 2.5%), ALP 34% (up 2%), WA Nationals 5% (up 0.5%), Greens 13.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 3% (n/a), Christians 2.5% (down 0.5%), and Independents/ Others 7% (n/a).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP):
Mr. McGowan 60% (up 1%) cf. Mr. Barnett 40% (down 1%); Lead to Mr McGowan 20% (up 2%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 8.9% (down 1.6% since July - September 2015) and under-employment is 7.8% (up 1.5%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 16.7% (down 0.1%). (Interviewed September – November 2015).

Western Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2017.


QUEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 51.5% (up 2.5% since October 9-15, 2015) cf. L-NP 48.5% (down 2.5%). Female electors: ALP 53.5% (up 1.5%) cf. LNP 46.5% (down 1.5%). Male electors: LNP 50.5% (down 3.5%) cf. ALP 49.5% (up 3.5%).

Primary vote electors: LNP 40.5% (down 1.5%), ALP 38.5% (up 4%), Greens 10% (down 1.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 3.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 2% (down 1.5%), Independents/ Others 5.5% (up 1%). Female electors: ALP 40.5% (up 2.5%), LNP 39% (up 0.5%), Greens 10.5% (down 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 2.5% (down 1%), Family First 1.5% (down 3%), Independents/ Others 6% (up 1.5%). Male electors: LNP 42% (down 3.5%), ALP 36.5% (up 6%), Greens 9.5% (down 2.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 4% (down 1%), Family First 2.5% (down 0.5%), Independents/ Others 5.5% (up 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Lawrence Springborg (LNP) electors:
Ms. Palaszczuk 65.5% (up 6%) cf. Mr. Springborg 34.5% (down 6%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 31% (up 12%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 70% (up 6%) cf. Mr. Springborg 30% (down 6%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 40% (up 12%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 60.5% (up 6%) cf. Mr. Springborg 39.5% (down 6%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 21% (up 12%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 9.7% (down 0.1% since August – September 2015) and under-employment is 9.8% (up 2.5%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 19.5% (up 2.4%). (Interviewed October – November 2015).

Queensland State Election is due to be held in early 2018.


TASMANIA: Liberals would win a close Election

2PP: Liberals 52.5% (up 3% since October 9-15, 2015) cf. ALP 47.5% (down 3%). Estimate: 2PP vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: Liberals 44.5% (up 2.5%), ALP 25.5% (down 4%), Greens 25% (up 1.5%) and Independents/ Others 5% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP):
Mr. Hodgman 68.5% (up 2%); Mr. Green 31.5% (down 2%); Lead to Mr Hodgman 37% (up 4%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 10.4% (down 1.8% since July – September 2015) and under-employment is 10.5% (down 1.1%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 20.9% (down 2.9%). (Interviewed September - November 2015).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held before December 31, 2018.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“In South Australia this week political ‘maverick’ Nick Xenophon announced his new party the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) would stand Senate candidates in all six Australian States at next year’s Federal Election as well as contesting all eight lower house seats in Adelaide. Xenophon has a strong following in South Australia – at the 2013 Federal Election Xenophon (24.9%) out-polled Labor (22.7%) in South Australia – an extraordinary result for an independent.

“Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted Australia-wide in early December on State voting intention shows Xenophon has significant support at a State level – 18% of South Australians would vote for the Nick Xenophon Team if a State election were held in South Australia this week. On a two-party preferred level the L-NP Opposition has gained a strong advantage: L-NP 54% (up 3% since mid-October) cf. ALP 46% (down 3%). There is also no joy for Premier Jay Weatherill, 52.5% (down 7%) now with a small lead as ‘Better Premier’ over Opposition Leader Steven Marshall 47.5% (up 7%).

“In Victoria the ALP 53.5% (down 2% since mid-October) ahead of the L-NP 46.5% (up 2%) by its narrowest margin since last year’s Victorian State Election. However, Premier Daniel Andrews’ has slightly increased his lead as ‘Better Premier’: Andrews 64% (up 0.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 36% (down 0.5%).

“Today’s SMS State Morgan Poll was taken before the arrest this week of Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union (CFMEU) boss John Setka and deputy Shaun Reardon. The worry for the Andrews Government is if revelations of other union wrongdoing is linked with the Victorian Labor Party over the next year.

“In New South Wales the long honeymoon continues for Premier Mike Baird with the L-NP 60.5% (unchanged  since mid-October) cf. ALP 39.5% (unchanged). Baird is also still clearly Australia’s most popular State Premier: Baird 72.5% (down 2%) cf. Opposition Leader Luke Foley 27.5% (up 2%). In Western Australia, the Barnett Liberal Government has lost its slight lead over the Opposition with the ALP 50.5% (up 2% since mid-October) now just ahead of the L-NP 49.5% (down 2%) and Opposition Leader Mark McGowan 60% (up 1%) still clearly regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ in the West over Premier Colin Barnett 40% (down 1%).

“In Queensland the ALP Government has regained the advantage with the ALP 51.5% (up 2.5% since mid-October) now ahead of the L-NP 48.5% (down 2.5%) and Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has increased her lead as ‘Better Premier’: Ms. Palaszczuk 65.5% (up 6%) cf. Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg 34.5% (down 6%). In Tasmania the Liberal Government  52.5% (up 3% since mid-October) is leading the ALP Opposition 47.5% (down 3%) while support has also risen for Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 68.5% (up 2%) cf. Opposition Leader Bryan Green 31.5% (down 2%) as ‘Better Premier’.”


For further information:

Contact

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?”

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between December 4-7, 2015 with a cross-section of 4,961 Australian electors including 1,084 New South Wales electors, 1,082 Victorian electors, 929 Queensland electors, 679 South Australian electors, 487 Western Australian electors and 369 Tasmanian electors.