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National set for Merry Christmas as Key Government retains strong lead over Labour/Greens opposition

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 882 electors in December 2015. Of all electors surveyed 8% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.
During December support for National was unchanged at 49% still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (unchanged) according to the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll. If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected easily.

Support for the National partners was little changed with the Maori Party down 0.5% to 1.5%, the Act NZ 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future 0.5% (up 0.5%).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support is now at 28.5% (down 1%), Greens 13% (up 1%), NZ First was unchanged at 6%. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 0.5% (unchanged), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (up 0.5%).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 128.5pts (down 3pts) in December. A slightly lesser majority of NZ electors 59.5% (down 0.5%) say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 31% (up 2.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. However, despite the fall, NZ Government Confidence is still higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is 122pts.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“The last Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for the year shows National 49% (unchanged since early November) maintaining a strong lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 41.5% (unchanged) as the Parliamentary year ends and New Zealanders get set for their Christmas holidays.

“In contrast to the vigorous disagreements seen throughout much of the year, the 2015 Parliamentary year closed this week in an amicable manner with Prime Minister John Key apologising to Opposition Leader Andrew Little for accusing him of ‘backing rapists’ a month ago in an argument about New Zealanders convicted of criminal charges being deported from Australia.

“In addition, Opposition Leader Little expressed regret for comments he and Labour colleagues had made about Speaker David Carter and accepted that several derogatory comments made by Labour MPs about Carter had been unparliamentary.

“Heading towards Christmas the good news for the Prime Minister is the strength of the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating – 122.7, clearly higher than ‘across the ditch’ in Australia – ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating is now 116.3.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 882 electors in December 2015. Of all electors surveyed 8% (up 1.5%) didn’t name a party.


Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Voting Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

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Michele Levine:

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0