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ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Stabilised in December

The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in December was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.

  • ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index stalled at 138.2 in December, compared with 138.4 last month.

  • In terms of personal finances, 40.3% (last 41.9%) of respondents said that their families are ‘better off’ financially. Meanwhile, 16.1% (last 16.0%) said that they are ‘worse off’. On the outlook for personal financial situation, 53.8% (last 50.6%) expected their families to be ‘better off’ next year, compared with 9.9% (last 7.0%) who expected conditions to be ‘worse off’.

  • On economic conditions, respondents who expect China to have ‘good times’ next year rose to 60.9% (last 56.0%), while respondents who expect economic ‘bad times’ edged up to 16.0% (last 15.7%). On longer-term economic performance, 62.1% (last 65.0%) expect China to have ‘good times’ and 14.9% (last 13.8%) said that there will be ‘bad times’.

  • In November, respondents who said that it is a ‘good time’ to buy major items increased to 40.9% (last 39.5%), while respondents who said that it is a ‘bad time’ to do so also rose to 10.4% (last 8.7%).

  • Inflation expectations increased to 3.60% (last 3.28%) in December.
ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Li-Gang Liu said:

“The Index this month indicates that China’s consumer confidence has not picked up, despite the slightly improving retail sales in November that gained 11.2% annually compared with 11.0% in the previous month. Our finding is consistent with the generally sluggish growth momentum. China is likely to miss the GDP target of 7.0% in 2015.

"As growth momentum remains weak and deflation risk looms large, the central bank is expected to further ease monetary policy. We forecast an imminent 50bps cut of reserve requirement ratio (RRR), followed by another 200 bps cut in 2016. China’s interest rate should also be lowered by 100bps next year.”

ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Rating - December 2015 - 138.2

ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Rating - December 2015 - 138.2

Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - December 2015.

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The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.