This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,004 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend December 12/13, 2015.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell a modest 0.8% this week to 115.4, consolidating after the 3.1% bounce in the previous week. Confidence remains well above levels seen last Christmas (+4.7% compared to this time last year), and is still above its long run average. A strong labour market report last week likely helped maintain elevated levels of confidence, while newsflow around the deterioration in the Commonwealth Budget ahead of today’s MYEFO may have weighed modestly on confidence.
ANZ Co-head of Australian Economics Felicity Emmett commented:
- The decline was relatively broad-based, with confidence in both financial conditions (-2.6%) and the economic outlook (-1.3%) falling last week, retracing some of the bounce seen in the previous week. In a surprising move, confidence on ‘time to buy a major household item’ bounced 3.4%.
- ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell sharply in WA (-12.7%), likely driven by concerns around job security with the announcement of mine closures last week. On the other hand, confidence in NSW bounced 5.4% on the back of very strong employment numbers for the state.
- For 2015 as a whole, confidence levels were moderately higher, compared to 2014 (see Table 1).
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell modestly last week, but remains well above levels seen last Christmas. Stronger employment growth and a falling unemployment rate are likely supporting confidence at above-average levels, although news around the Government’s Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook perhaps weighed slightly on sentiment this week.
"The MYEFO is likely to show a deterioration in the Federal Budget’s underlying cash balance as falling commodity prices and lower potential economic growth hit revenue projections. What will be important for consumer confidence going forward, however, will be how the Turnbull government responds to the deterioration in the fiscal outlook. In the near term, though, the strength in the labour market is likely to keep consumer confidence elevated.”
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research says:
"ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (115.4) has ended 2015 measurably higher than a year ago (110.2).
"TheTurnbull Government has injected confidence in the economy however the end of the commodities boom is only now starting to have an impact on the Australian economy. Unless real action is taken to get the private sector moving Consumer Confidence will deteriorate in 2016. Tax reform alone will be of limited value while significant sectors of the economy, such as the cost of the Public Sector and 'cash economy', are immune."
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.