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L-NP lead down over ALP – now 56% (down 1.5%) cf. 44% (up 1.5%) although L-NP would still win Federal Election easily

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 2/3 & 9/10, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,839 Australian electors.
In early January L-NP support fell slightly to 56% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 44% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, if a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP was 47% (down 1%) and up 2% for the ALP to 29%. Support for the Greens was down 1.5% to 13%, Katter’s Australian Party is 1.5% (unchanged), Palmer United Party is 1% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (up 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Despite less support for the Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was up slightly (1.5pts) this week to 116.5 with 48.5% (unchanged) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 32% (down 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 2/3 & 9/10, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,839 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows clear majorities of both genders support the L-NP.  Men: L-NP 59% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 41% (up 1.5%); Women: L-NP 53.5% (down 1.5%) cf. ALP 46.5% (up 1.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with 18-24yr olds (ALP 62% cf. L-NP 38%) and the ALP now leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%). However, the L-NP leads comfortably with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds (L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%); 50-64yr olds (L-NP 58.5% cf. ALP 41.5%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 66% cf. ALP 34%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP holds its two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. Western Australia: L-NP 62.5% cf. ALP 37.5%, Queensland: LNP 60% cf. ALP 40%, Tasmania: L-NP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%, New South Wales: L-NP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5%, South Australia: L-NP 55% cf. ALP 45% and Victoria: L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the L-NP (55.5%) cf. ALP (44.5%) – this is largely because Greens voters are now preferring Turnbull’s L-NP at a greater rate than at the last election – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"The first Morgan Poll for 2016 shows the L-NP 56% well ahead of the ALP 44% on a two-party preferred basis as Australia heads towards this year’s Federal Election. This week’s Morgan Poll is the first conducted since Turnbull Government Minister for Cities Jamie Briggs resigned and Special Minister of State Mal Brough stepped aside in the last week of 2015.

“However, despite the small fall in support for the Turnbull Government, the L-NP retains the significant two-party preferred lead it has held since Turnbull became Prime Minister in mid-September 2015. In addition, Roy Morgan Government Confidence has increased to 116.5 (up 1.5pts) to start the New Year as now only 32% (down 1.5%) of Australians say ‘Australia is heading in the wrong direction’.

“Although today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP Government continues to enjoy widespread support, the sharp falls on the Australian share-market last week show the Australian economy faces a tough year as the Chinese economy slows and the Australian mining industry is heavily impacted by the falling commodities prices across the board.

“Apart from overseas concerns the main issue for the Turnbull Government as it faces re-election this year is to outline a credible plan to tackle Australia’s high real unemployment – now at 9.7% (1.256 million) – and under-employment – 11.0% (1.434 million) in December. This means a record high 2.69 million Australians (20.7%) are either unemployed or under-employed (working part-time and looking for more hours or a full-time job).”


Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6629 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends January 2/3 & 9/10, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,839 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - January 11, 2016

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0