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National lead down slightly over Labour/Greens opposition in New Year. TPP signing ceremony set for Auckland in two weeks a coup for PM John Key.

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 876 electors in January 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.
During January support for National was down 2% to 47% although still well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (unchanged) in the first Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for 2016. If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected with the support of minor parties.

Support for the National partners showed increased support for the Maori Party, up 1.5% to 3.0%, although Act NZ was 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future was 0% (down 0.5%).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support is now at 27.5% (down 1%), Greens 14% (up 1%), NZ First is 6.5% (up 0.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 0.5%), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (unchanged).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 131.5pts (up 3pts) in January. An unchanged majority of NZ electors 59.5% say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 28% (down 3%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is much higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is 116.5pts in January.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s first Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for 2016 shows National 47% (down 2% since December) holding a strong lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 41.5% (unchanged) as New Zealanders come back to work after enjoying the Summer holidays.

“Additional good news for National is the increase to the New Zealand Government Confidence Rating to 131.5 (up 3pts) in January – clearly higher than in Australia (116.5pts in mid-January) and the increase of the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating – now 121.4, up 2.7pts to start 2016.

“In a coup for Prime Minister John Key, Trade Minister Todd McClay has confirmed this week the signing ceremony for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – which includes 12 countries that account for over 40 per cent of New Zealand’s exports – will be in Auckland in early February. The TPP agreement to lower trade barriers should provide a significant boost to the New Zealand economy over the next few years despite the continuing worries about a global economic slowdown.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 876 electors in January 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.


Roy Morgan New Zealand Interactive Voting Charts

These interactive charts allow a deeper look at voting patterns in New Zealand over varying timeframes and provide election observers with the ability to pinpoint key turning points for the political parties.

View interactive New Zealand Election charts here.

Purchase the latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Electorate Profiles.



For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0