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L-NP lead over ALP narrows – now 55% (down 1%) cf. 45% (up 1%). Nick Xenophon outpolls Labor in South Australia – again.

Finding No. 6649 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends January 16/17 & 23/24, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,247 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.
In late January L-NP support fell to 55% (down 1%) cf. ALP 45% (up 1%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win easily.

Primary support for the L-NP is 43.5% (down 3.5%) with ALP at 28% (down 1%). Support for the Greens is up 2% to 15%, Katter’s Australian Party is 2% (up 0.5%), Nick Xenophon Team 2%; 22.5% in South Australia, Palmer United Party is 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others are at 9% (up 0.5%).

Independent Senator Nick Xenophon recently announced he will be standing candidates in 8 of 11 South Australian lower house seats. The Morgan Poll included Xenophon’s new Party the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) for the first time this fortnight and NXT has backed up Senator Xenophon’s strong performance in the 2013 Federal Election.

In the 2013 Federal Election Xenophon received 24.9% of the vote compared to the ALP 22.7% in the South Australia Senate election. In late January NXT (22.5%) has again outpolled the ALP (21.5%) in South Australia although both are well behind the L-NP (31.5%) with other minor parties including the Greens and Family First also polling strongly.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

With less support for the Government the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was down 3.5pts this week to 113 with 48% (down 0.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 35% (up 3%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 16/17 & 23/24, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,247 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP while women are now evenly divided.  Men: L-NP 59.5% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 40.5% (down 0.5%); Women: L-NP 50% (down 3.5%) cf. ALP 50% (up 3.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with electors under 35 – 18-24yr olds (ALP 51.5% cf. L-NP 48.5%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%). However, the L-NP leads comfortably with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds (L-NP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%); 50-64yr olds (L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 61.5% cf. ALP 38.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP holds its two-party preferred lead in all Australian States except Victoria which is evenly divided. Tasmania: L-NP 62% cf. ALP 38%, Western Australia: L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%, Queensland: LNP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5%, New South Wales: L-NP 56% cf. ALP 44%, South Australia: L-NP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5% and Victoria: L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the L-NP (54%) cf. ALP (46%) – this is largely because Greens voters are now preferring Turnbull’s L-NP at a greater rate than at the last election – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"The L-NP at 55% remains well ahead of the ALP at 45% on a two-party preferred basis a week before Federal Parliament resumes for the first sitting week of the year. However, this is the narrowest lead the L-NP has had since the weekend after Turnbull became Prime Minister – September 19/20, 2015 (L-NP 55% cf. ALP 45%).

“Independent Senator Nick Xenophon has announced his intention to stand candidates in 8 out of 11 lower house seats in South Australia. Today’s Morgan Poll shows the biggest victim of his new party – the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) could well be the ALP. In South Australia NXT (22.5%) is outpolling the ALP (21.5%) - repeating its performance at the 2013 Federal Election when Senator Xenophon (24.9%) received more Senate votes in South Australia than the ALP (22.7%). The ALP currently holds five of the 11 lower-house seats in South Australia, while the Liberal Party holds the other six South Australian seats.

“Overnight former Prime Minister Tony Abbott announced he had decided to stand again for his seat of Warringah at this year’s Federal Election. Abbott’s decision will not be appreciated by current Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. It has the potential to derail the Liberal Party in the same way as Kevin Rudd did for Labor.

“Many believe Tony Abbott ‘wasted’ his two years as Prime Minister and was unable to successfully implement any meaningful reforms to improve business conditions in Australia to the degree he had promised prior to winning the 2013 Federal Election.

“As PM Abbott showed no interest in reforming Australia’s out-dated and costly industrial relations laws. The restrictive industrial relations laws significantly contribute to Australia’s very high true unemployment (9.7%) and under-employment (11.0%) – 2.69 million Australians are either looking for work (unemployed) or looking for more work or a full-time job (under-employed) according to the latest Roy Morgan December employment estimates.

“Abbott’s legacy will only be truly apparent this year as the end of the mining boom and an uncertain global economic outlook lead to more Australians becoming unemployed. Already this year Dick Smith Electronics has been put into receivership threatening over 3,000 jobs and Woolworths has decided to discontinue its Masters home improvement warehouses which currently employ over 10,000 Australians. Ongoing job losses throughout the mining industry and manufacturing industries will be a huge challenge for the Turnbull Government to deal with as it seeks re-election later in the year.

“It will be interesting to see what Tony Abbott plans to bring to the Australian political landscape over the next few years.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6649 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends January 16/17 & 23/24, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,247 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed  2% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


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Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - January 25, 2016

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0