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ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence down for the third week in a row to 112.2
January 27 2016
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,071 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend January 23/24, 2016.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 0.9% to 112.2 this week, and is now down 3.6% over the past three weeks. Confidence is now below its long run average for the first time in almost four months. The recent falls are largely a reflection of ongoing global concerns and financial market volatility.
ANZ Chief Economist Warren Hogan commented:
- Confidence in the short-term economic outlook has been weighing on confidence recently, with the sub-index on ‘economic conditions in the next 12 months’ falling 13.5% since early December. While confidence in the economic outlook in the next five years rose 0.5% last week, this sub-index remains subdued and below its long-run average (-9.0%).
- The sub-indices on financial conditions, which are most correlated with household spending, remain elevated and above their long-run average.
- The sub-index on ‘time to buy a major household item’ has fallen 7.9% over the past three weeks, weighing on confidence.
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence has fallen for the third consecutive week and is now below its run average. Recent weakness looks to have broken the uptrend in confidence that has been in place since September. Australian’s perceptions of the economic environment continue to be highly sensitive to bad news on the global economy and markets. In particular, views towards the short-term economic outlook have been in a downward trend since early December and the recent financial volatility has only made matters worse. Consumers’ views towards the economic outlook are clearly weighing on confidence right now.
"Consumers’ views towards their current personal finances, a measure most correlated with household spending, remains elevated. This most likely reflects strong domestic economic fundamentals including low inflation and interest rates, falling petrol prices and rising employment. This suggests to us that consumer spending should remain firm in early 2016 despite the weakness in overall consumer sentiment. Our concern is that as the year progresses, other parts of the economy, including the housing sector and business investment, will be a headwind to economic growth, and may also be a headwind to confidence on the economic outlook.”
Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.