Back To Listing

Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) increases support in South Australia while L-NP well in front in NSW and ALP holds solid lead in Victoria

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between January 29 – February 1, 2016 with a cross-section of 5,577 Australian electors including 1,292 New South Wales electors, 1,185 Victorian electors, 925 Queensland electors, 745 South Australian electors, 752 Western Australian electors and 358 Tasmanian electors.

In South Australia the new Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) has backed up its strong showing in last week’s Morgan Poll on Federal Voting intention and is supported by 20.5% (up 2.5% since early December 2015) of South Australian electors. In South Australia the L-NP opposition lead is down slightly over the Weatherill ALP Government: L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%.

In Australia’s two largest States L-NP support is down slightly in NSW but the Baird Government still maintains a strong lead: L-NP 59.5% cf. ALP 40.5% and support for the Andrews Government is steady in Victoria with two-party support unchanged since December: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%.

This Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted in late January and early February with a representative cross-section of  5,577 Australian electors.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: L-NP would win an Election

2PP: L-NP 53% (down 1% since December 4-7, 2015) cf. ALP 47% (up 1%).

Primary vote: L-NP 35.5% (down 1.5%), ALP 27% (up 1%), Xenophon 20.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 9.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 5.5% (unchanged), and Independents/ Others 2% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steven Marshall (Liberal):
Mr. Weatherill 53.5% (up 1%) cf. Mr. Marshall 46.5% (down 1%); Lead to Mr Weatherill 7% (up 2%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 11.5% (down 0.4% since September – November 2015) and under-employment is 7.3% (down 0.3%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 18.8% (down 0.7%). (Interviewed October – December 2015).

South Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win an Election easily

2PP: L-NP 59.5% (down 1% since December 4-7, 2015) cf. ALP 40.5% (up 1%).

Primary vote: L-NP 52% (unchanged), ALP 24.5% (up 2%), Greens 14.5% (down 0.5%), Christian Democrats 2.5% (down 1%) and Independents/ Others 6.5% (down 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 72% (down 0.5%) cf. Mr. Foley 28% (up 0.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird 44% (down 1%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 9.2% (up 0.4% since October – November 2015) and under-employment is 9.8% (up 0.1%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 19% (up 0.5%). (Interviewed November – December 2015).

New South Wales State Election is due to be held in March 2019.


VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election comfortably

2PP: ALP 53.5% (unchanged since December 4-7, 2015) cf. L-NP 46.5% (unchanged).

Primary vote: L-NP 41% (up 0.5%), ALP 39% (up 1%), Greens 13% (down 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (down 1%), Country Alliance 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 5% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal):
Mr. Andrews 62.5% (down 1.5%) cf. Mr. Guy 37.5% (up 1.5%); Lead to Mr. Andrews 25% (down 3%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 9.9% (up 1.6% since October – November 2015) and under-employment is 11.7% (up 2.1%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 21.6% (up 3.7%). (Interviewed  November – December 2015).

Victorian State Election is due to be held in November 2018.


QUEENSLAND: LNP would win a close Election

2PP: LNP 52% (up 3.5% since December 4-7, 2015) cf. ALP 48% (down 3.5%). Female electors: ALP 51.5% (down 2%) cf. LNP 48.5% (up 2%). Male electors: LNP 55.5% (up 5%) cf. ALP 44.5% (down 5%).

Primary vote electors: L-NP 45.5% (up 5%), ALP 36.5% (down 2%), Greens 9% (down 1%), Katter’s Australian Party 3% (down 0.5%), Family First 2% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 4% (down 1.5%). Female electors: LNP 42.5% (up 3.5%),  ALP 40% (down 0.5%), Greens 10% (down 0.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 2.5% (unchanged), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 3.5% (down 2.5%). Male electors: LNP 48% (up 6%), ALP 33% (down 3.5%), Greens 8% (down 1.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 4% (unchanged), Family First 2.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 4.5% (down 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Lawrence Springborg (LNP) electors:
Ms. Palaszczuk 61.5% (down 4%) cf. Mr. Springborg 38.5% (up 4%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 23% (down 8%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 63.5% (down 6.5%) cf. Mr. Springborg 36.5% (up 6.5%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 27% (down 13%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 59% (down 1.5%) cf. Mr. Springborg 41% (up 1.5%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 18% (down 3%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 9.8% (up 0.1% since October – November 2015) and under-employment is 12.2% (up 2.4%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 22.0% (up 2.5%). (Interviewed November - December 2015).

Queensland State Election is due to be held in early 2018.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: L-NP would win an Election

2PP: L-NP 54.5% (up 5% since December 4-7, 2015) cf. ALP 45.5% (down 5%).

Primary vote: Liberal 39.5% (up 4.5%), ALP 32% (down 2%), WA Nationals 7.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 11.5% (down 2%), Family First 1% (down 2%), Christians 2.5% (unchanged), and Independents/ Others 6% (down 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP):
Mr. McGowan 56.5% (down 3.5%) cf. Mr. Barnett 43.5% (up 3.5%); Lead to Mr McGowan 13% (down 7%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 6.7% (down 2.2% since September – November 2015) and under-employment is 9.4% (up 1.6%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 16.1% (down 0.6%). (Interviewed October – December 2015).

Western Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2017.


TASMANIA: ALP would win a close Election

2PP: ALP 50.5% (up 3% since December 4-7, 2015) cf. Liberals 49.5% (down 3%). Estimate: 2PP vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: Liberals 43% (down 1.5%), ALP 30.5% (up 5%), Greens 21.5% (down 3.5%) and Independents/ Others 5% (unchanged).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP):
Mr. Hodgman 63% (down 5.5%); Mr. Green 37% (up 5.5%); Lead to Mr Hodgman 26% (down 11%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 12.9% (up 2.5% since September – November 2015) and under-employment is 12.9% (up 2.4%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 25.8% (up 4.9%). (Interviewed October – December 2015).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held before December 31, 2018.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted Australia-wide in late January and early February on State voting intention shows the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) has followed up a strong showing in South Australia in last week’s Morgan Poll on Federal Voting intention by again receiving over a fifth of the vote 20.5% (up 2.5% since December). This shows NXT will have a key role to play in the next South Australian State Election due in March 2018 should NXT choose to stand candidates.

“Overall in South Australia the L-NP Opposition 53% (down 1%) leads the ALP Government 47% (up 1%) on a two-party preferred basis, however South Australian ALP Premier Jay Weatherill 53.5% (up 1%) is still preferred to Opposition Leader Steven Marshall 46.5% (down 1%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“In Queensland the minority Palaszczuk Government has faced renewed instability in the past week with Cairns MP Rob Pyne resigning from Labor’s left faction although Pyne has since committed to remain inside the ALP Government after a week of speculation about his future. This instability has impacted the Palaszczuk Government’s support with the LNP 52% (up 3.5%) now ahead of the ALP 48% (down 3.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. However, despite the Palaszczuk Government’s troubles, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk 61.5% (down 4%) still maintains a sizeable advantage over Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg 38.5% (up 4%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“In Victoria the ALP 53.5% (unchanged) remains clearly ahead of the L-NP 46.5% (unchanged). However, Premier Daniel Andrews’ has had his lead as ‘Better Premier’ slightly trimmed: Andrews 62.5% (down 1.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 37.5% (up 1.5%). In New South Wales the long honeymoon continues (nearly two years long now) for Premier Mike Baird with the L-NP 59.5% (down 1%) cf. ALP 40.5% (up 1%). Baird is also still clearly Australia’s most popular State Premier: Baird 72% (down 0.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Luke Foley 28% (up 0.5%).

“In Western Australia, the Barnett Liberal Government 54.5% (up 5%) has regained a clear lead over the ALP Opposition 45.5% (down 5%) after Barnett took a strong stand against reigniting the Republic debate by refusing to sign a declaration calling for an Australian Head of State in contrast to the other five State Premiers. However, despite the improved performance for the Barnett Government Opposition Leader Mark McGowan 56.5% (down 3.5%) is still regarded as the ‘Better Premier’ over Premier Colin Barnett 43.5% (up 3.5%). In Tasmania the ALP Opposition 50.5% (up 3%) has a narrow lead over the Liberal Government  49.5% (down 3%) although Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 63% (down 5.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Bryan Green 37% (up 5.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?”

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between January 29 – February 1, 2016 with a cross-section of 5,577 Australian electors including 1,292 New South Wales electors, 1,185 Victorian electors, 925 Queensland electors, 745 South Australian electors, 752 Western Australian electors and 358 Tasmanian electors.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093