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ALP narrows gap following GST discussions – ALP up 2.5% to 47.5% cf. L-NP down 2.5% to 52.5%

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 30/31 & February 6/7, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,072 Australian electors.
In early February L-NP support fell 2.5% to 52.5% cf. ALP up 2.5% to 47.5% on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would still win.

Primary support for the L-NP is 43.5% (unchanged) with ALP at 29% (up 1%). Support for the Greens is up 1% to 16%, Nick Xenophon Team 1% (down 1%; 15% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (down 1.5%), Palmer United Party is 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 9.5% (up 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was virtually unchanged this week - down 0.5pts to 112.5 with 47.5% (down 0.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 35% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, January 30/31 & February 6/7, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,072 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP while women are now evenly divided.  Men: L-NP 55% (down 4.5%) cf. ALP 45% (up 4.5%); Women: L-NP 50% (unchanged) cf. ALP 50% (unchanged).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with electors under 35 – 18-24yr olds (ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 58% cf. L-NP 42%). However, the L-NP leads with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds (L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%); 50-64yr olds (L-NP 55.5% cf. ALP 44.5%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 61% cf. ALP 39%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP and ALP now each have two-party preferred lead in three Australian States. The L-NP leads in Western Australia: L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%, Queensland: LNP 56.5% cf. ALP 43.5% and New South Wales: L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46% while the ALP leads in Victoria: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48%, South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% and Tasmania: ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the L-NP (52.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%) – this is largely because Greens voters are now preferring Turnbull’s L-NP at a greater rate than at the last election – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"The Coalition Government’s lead has been cut to its smallest since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister just under five months ago – L-NP 52.5% (down 2.5% since late January) cf. ALP 47.5% on a two-party preferred basis. The drop in support for the L-NP follows considerable discussion in the past week about changes to Australia’s taxation system – including an increase of the GST to 15%.

“In recent weeks Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison have spent a substantial amount of time debating the merits of an increase to the GST through various media outlets; however, in recent days Turnbull has appeared to abandon any thought of an increase to the tax introduced by his predecessor Liberal Prime Minister John Howard.

“The idea of increasing the GST has not impressed some Coalition backbenchers who would face a tough sell in convincing the electorate that increasing the taxation burden on goods and services – whilst lowering tax in other areas – is the right idea to get the Australian economy moving again following the end of the mining boom. These Coalition backbenchers are right.

“Arguing about what sort of taxation reforms the Government should undertake such as increasing the GST is pointless as it completely ignores the booming ‘cash economy’ which is especially concentrated in personal services, building and construction, retail and hospitality.

“In addition, instead of arguing about whether to increase the taxation burden on all Australians, the Turnbull Government should be promoting a significant restructuring of Australia’s costly and restrictive industrial relations laws. The ‘red tape’ that surrounds working conditions in Australia – including high weekend and public holiday penalty rates – discourages businesses from employing more people and contributing to a growing and more productive Australian economy.

“Only comprehensive industrial relations reform will allow the economy to resume strong growth and provide employment for the many Australians that are unemployed (10.3%, 1.346 million) or under-employed (9.4%, 1.229 million) – as shown by the latest Roy Morgan January true unemployment estimates.

The total of 2.575 million Australians (19.7%) either unemployed or under-employed – those who are looking for more work or a full-time job – should be an embarrassment for Malcolm Turnbull heading towards this year’s Federal Election – which is likely to be held in August.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6665 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends January 30/31 & February 6/7, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,072 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed  2.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.


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Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - February 9, 2016

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0