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National builds winning lead over Labour/Greens opposition in New Zealand following TPP signing ceremony in Auckland early in February

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 896 electors in February 2016. Of all electors surveyed 7% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

During February support for Nationals was up 1.5% to 48.5% well ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (unchanged) in the second Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for 2016. If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected comfortably.

Support for the National partners showed a sharp fall in support for the Maori Party, down 2% to 1%, Act NZ was 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support is now at 27% (down 0.5%), Greens 14.5% (up 0.5%), NZ First is 6% (down 0.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (unchanged), the Internet-Mana Party alliance is at 0.5% (up 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 1% (up 0.5%).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 128pts (down 3.5pts) in February. A majority of NZ electors 56.5% (down 3%) say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 28.5% (up 0.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is much higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is 112.5pts in February.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows National 48.5% (up 1.5% since January) strengthening their winning lead over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 41.5% (unchanged) despite reports of caucus factions within the National Government in relation to New Zealand’s Flag referendum taking place next month.

“Earlier in February New Zealand hosted the signing ceremony for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – a free trade agreement between 12 nations around the Pacific Rim including New Zealand, Australia, United States, Mexico and Japan. The 12 nations of the TPP represent 40% of the world economy and the TPP will provide New Zealand businesses with tremendous growth possibilities once fully ratified by all nations.

“In February both NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence – 128pts (down 3.5pts) and the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating – 119.7 (down 2.7pts) have fallen, although both remain well above their counterparts in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is 112.5pts in mid-February and ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence is now 113.6.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 896 electors in February 2016. Of all electors surveyed 7% (up 0.5%) didn’t name a party.

For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0