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ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence surprisingly rebounded in February - up 2.9pts to 139.2
February 17 2016
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in February was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Li-Gang Liu said:
- ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index surprisingly rebounded to 139.2 in February, up from 136.3 in January.
- In terms of personal finances, 42.8% (last 43.1%) of respondents said that their families are ‘better off’ financially. Meanwhile, 18.4% (last 17.8%) said that they are ‘worse off’. On the outlook for personal financial situation, 58.0% (last 53.8%) expected their families to be ‘better off’ next year, compared with 5.6% (last 8.7%) who expected conditions to be ‘worse off’.
- On economic conditions, respondents who expect China to have ‘good times’ over the next year rose to 53.2% (last 51.4%), while respondents who expect economic ‘bad times’ fell to 19.5% (last 22.3%). On longer-term economic performance, 67.4% (last 62.5%) expect China to have ‘good times’ and 16.9% (last 18.6%) said that there will be ‘bad times’.
- In February, respondents who said that it is a ‘good time’ to buy major items declined to 44.8% (last 45.9%), while respondents who said that it is a ‘bad time’ to do so increased to 10.0% (last 7.8%).
- Inflation expectations rose to 3.8% (last 3.5%) in February.
“The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Rating surprisingly rebounded in February although incoming economic data remain sluggish. This may suggest that the services sector continues to outperform the rest of the economy, consistent with some of the service industry data, such as movie box office revenue, online retail sales, tourism statistics, which saw fast growth last year. Services industries will likely continue to drive GDP growth in Q1 2016 because of huge travel volumes during the Chinese New Year period.
"While China’s rising consumption is encouraging, consumption alone can only cushion China’s slowdown but it is likely insufficient to help China achieve a full-fledged recovery in the near term. As China’s fixed asset investments only grew 10% in 2015, missing the target of 15% by a large margin, we believe that policy action is still needed to boost investments this year. We think that fiscal deficit will increase to over 2.5% of GDP this year. Meanwhile, further monetary policy easing is also needed, and we expect RRR cuts of 200bps this year.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - February 2016.
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The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.