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Federal Voting Intention unchanged: L-NP 52.5% maintain clear 2PP lead over ALP 47.5%

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, February 13/14 & 20/21, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,116 Australian electors.
In mid-February L-NP support is 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5% (both unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win.

Primary support for the L-NP is 43.5% (unchanged) with ALP at 29.5% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens is down 1% to 15%, Nick Xenophon Team 1.5% (up 0.5%; 16.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 1% (up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (down 1%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has plunged this week - down 7.5pts to 105 with 43% (down 4.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 38% (up 3%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, February 13/14 & 20/21, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,116 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men strongly favouring the L-NP while women are more evenly divided.  Men: L-NP 54.5% (down 0.5%) cf. ALP 45.5% (up 0.5%); Women: L-NP 51% (up 1%) cf. ALP 49% (down 1%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with electors under 35 – 18-24yr olds (ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 55.5% cf. L-NP 44.5%). However, the L-NP leads with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds (L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%); 50-64yr olds (L-NP 55% cf. ALP 45%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 60.5% cf. ALP 39.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in all Australian States. The L-NP leads in Western Australia: L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%, Tasmania: L-NP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%, New South Wales: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%, Queensland: LNP 52% cf. ALP 48%, Victoria: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% and South Australia: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the L-NP (52.5%) cf. ALP (47.5%) – this is largely because Greens voters are now preferring Turnbull’s L-NP at a greater rate than at the last election – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"The Coalition Government’s lead remains unchanged from early February with the L-NP 52.5% (unchanged) leading the ALP 47.5% (unchanged) on a two-party preferred basis. Despite the media speculation created by today’s Newspoll the Morgan Poll shows the L-NP 43.5% maintains a very strong lead over the ALP 29.5% on a primary vote basis and leads clearly around Australia in all States, amongst both men and women, and amongst all age groups aged 35+ - clearly the majority of the Australian electorate.

“However, there are reasons for concern for the L-NP. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped to 105 (down 7.5pts) this week – the lowest it has been since mid-September just after Malcolm Turnbull deposed Tony Abbott to become Prime Minister.

“The ongoing discussion about changes to taxation policy and also increasing speculation about when Turnbull will call the next Federal Election are creating an atmosphere of ‘confusion’ about what the Turnbull Government stands for. Last week the ALP even produced a ‘risky policy’ of its own to change the rules governing negative gearing, including restricting negative gearing to purchases of new properties.

“Prime Minister Turnbull and Treasurer Scott Morrison need to outline the policies and reforms they will stake this Government on now rather than waiting until Morrison delivers his first Federal Budget in May or when Turnbull decides to call an election.

“For instance the Government’s proposal for low income and part-time workers to receive more of their income directly rather than having 9% siphoned off into superannuation funds, most of this money used for fees and charges, is a policy that clearly appeals to many lower-income and part-time working Australians.

“In addition Morrison has also indicated that tax breaks on superannuation which are projected to cost the Federal Budget up to $30 billion this year could be wound back. As Morrison said of superannuation “It’s important we remember why superannuation exists. It’s there to assist those with the means to do so to achieve better retirement income and at the same time reduce pressure on the aged pension. It’s not there to be a tax-incentivised estate planning vehicle.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6691 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends February 13/14 & 20/21, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,116 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed  2.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.


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Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - February 22, 2016

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0