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Federal Voting Intention virtually unchanged: L-NP 53% maintain clear 2PP lead over ALP 47% as Parliament debates Senate reform

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, February 27/28 & March 5/6, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,011 Australian electors.

In early March L-NP support is 53% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 47% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win.

Primary support for the L-NP is 43% (down 0.5%) with ALP at 29.5% (unchanged). Support for the Greens is down 2% to 13%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 5% (this is the first time the Morgan Poll has measured NXT in all States; 18% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (unchanged), Palmer United Party is 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others are at 8% (down 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down this week - down 3pts to 102 with 41.5% (down 1.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39.5% (up 1.5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, February 27/28 & March 5/6, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,011 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men strongly favouring the L-NP while women are more evenly divided.  Men: L-NP 55% (up 0.5%) cf. ALP 45% (down 0.5%); Women: L-NP 51% (unchanged) cf. ALP 49% (unchanged).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with electors under 35: 18-24yr olds (ALP 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%). However, the L-NP leads with all older age groups: 35-49yr olds (L-NP 52% cf. ALP 48%); 50-64yr olds (L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 64% cf. ALP 36%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in four Australian States with two evenly divided. The LNP leads in Queensland: LNP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%, New South Wales: L-NP 55% cf. ALP 45%, Western Australia: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5%, and Tasmania: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5%.  Victoria: L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50% and South Australia: L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50% are evenly divided.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s poll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the L-NP (53%) cf. ALP (47%) – this is largely because Greens voters are now preferring Turnbull’s L-NP at a greater rate than at the last election – for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"The Coalition Government’s lead remains virtually unchanged from mid-February with the L-NP 53% (up 0.5%) leading the ALP 47% (down 0.5%) on a two-party preferred basis. The debate surrounding Senate reform has heated up in the past fortnight with the L-NP working with the Greens and Senator Nick Xenophon to pass changes that would eliminate the chances of a ‘micro-party’ – like Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party (AMEP) Senator Ricky Muir – getting elected on only 0.5% of the Victorian Senate vote.

“The ‘deal’ the Greens have struck with the Turnbull Government appears to have dented their support – down 2% to 13% - the equal lowest for nearly a year since May 2015. However, support for the new Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) party has registered 5% nationally, and 18% in Xenophon’s home State of South Australia with 4.5% in New South Wales, 4% in both Victoria and Queensland and 1.5% in both Western Australia and Tasmania.

“This week’s strong result for the L-NP comes after a good week for the Australian economy. Australia’s GDP for the December Quarter 2015 came in above expectations at 0.6% for the December Quarter for an annual GDP growth rate of 3.0%. In addition last week the Australian All Ordinaries share-market increased over 200pts (4.2%) to close at 5,151.10 on Friday and the Australian Dollar increased to over 74 US cents – its highest since July 2015.

“However, there are reasons for concern for the L-NP. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating this week dropped to 102 (down 3pts) – the lowest it has been since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister. Today’s Morgan Poll results show the Australian electorate is not too interested in the scuttlebutt circulating over the past few days concerning former Prime Minister Tony Abbott and his former Chief of Staff Peta Credlin, although if instability in the Turnbull Government continues it will eventually produce a negative impact.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6711 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends February 27/28 & March 5/6, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,011 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed  2.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.


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Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - February 27/28 & March 5/6, 2016

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0