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National lead cut to smallest since September as NZ First vote surges to 9% as Winston Peters takes strong stand on New Zealand Flag Referendum

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 861 electors in February 2016. Of all electors surveyed 8% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.
During March support for National fell 2.5% to 46% - the lowest since September 2015, now only 4% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 42% (up 0.5%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9% (up 3%) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, unchanged at 1%, Act NZ was 1% (up 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support is now at 28% (up 1%), Greens 14% (down 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3% to 9% - its highest level of support in over a decade since August 2005. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Others is 0% (down 1%).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 132pts (up 4pts) in March. A clear majority of NZ electors 61% (up 4.5%) say NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29% (up 0.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is much higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is 102pts in March.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the lead for National 46% (down 2.5% since February) at its smallest over a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 42% (up 0.5%) since September 2015. As the results tighten, this brings the centrist party, NZ First 9% (up 3%) into the equation as potential ‘king-makers’ able to determine who would form New Zealand’s next Government and be Prime Minister after the next New Zealand Election – due late next year.

“New Zealand First Leader Winston Peter’s strong stand on the New Zealand Flag Referendum – being voted on this month – that only New Zealand citizens should have the right to vote, rather than both citizens and permanent residents, appears to have won the party significant support. NZ First was last in Government under Prime Minister Helen Clark between 2005-08.

“Despite the drop in support for National, New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence increased to 132pts (up 4pts) in March and is now a very large 30pts higher than Roy Morgan Australian Government Confidence – which is at a lowly 102pts in mid-March.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 861 electors in March 2016. Of all electors surveyed 8% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0