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ALP increases support in all Australian States. Queensland electors narrowly turn down new election after Referendum on 4 year terms successful

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between March 25-28, 2016 with a cross-section of 4,833 Australian electors including 1,116 New South Wales electors, 1,071 Victorian electors, 821 Queensland electors, 648 South Australian electors, 603 Western Australian electors and 295 Tasmanian electors.

In Australia’s two largest States L-NP support is down. In NSW the Baird Government still maintains a strong lead: L-NP 55% cf. ALP 45% while support for the Andrews Government has risen in Victoria with two-party support: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%. In Queensland the Palaszczuk Government has regained the two-party preferred lead: ALP 52% cf. LNP 48% after Queenslanders voted in a referendum a week ago to institute four year Government terms in the State.

This Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted in late March with a representative cross-section of  4,833 Australian electors.


QUEENSLAND: ALP would win a close Election

2PP: ALP 52% (up 4% since January 29 - February 1, 2016) cf. LNP 48% (down 4%). Female electors: ALP 55% (up 3.5%) cf. L-NP 45% (down 3.5%). Male electors: LNP 51.5% (down 4%) cf. ALP 48.5% (up 4%).

Primary vote electors: ALP 37.5% (up 1%),  LNP 40% (down 5.5%), Greens 12.5% (up 3.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 3.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 2% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 4.5% (up 0.5%). Female electors: ALP 43% (up 3%), LNP 39% (down 3.5%),  Greens 11.5% (up 1.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 1.5% (down 1%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 3.5% (unchanged). Male electors: LNP 41% (down 7%), ALP 32% (down 1%), Greens 13.5% (up 5.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 5.5% (up 1.5%), Family First 2.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 5.5% (up 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Lawrence Springborg (LNP) electors:
Ms. Palaszczuk 63.5% (up 2%) cf. Mr. Springborg 36.5% (down 2%); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 27% (up 4%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 65.5% (up 2%) cf. Mr. Springborg 34.5% (down 2%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk  31% (up 4%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 61.5% (up 2.5%) cf. Mr. Springborg 38.5% (down 2.5%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 23% (up 5%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 12.1% (up 2.3% since November – December 2015) and under-employment is 7.6% (down 4.6%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 19.7% (down 2.3%). (Interviewed February - March 2016).

Queensland electors were then asked: After last week's referendum, should Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk seek a new mandate and call a Queensland Election?”

A majority of Queensland electors said ‘No’ (56%), don’t call an election while 44% said ‘Yes’, call an Election.

By Voting intention: 80% of ALP supporters said ‘no’ – don’t call an election cf. 20% who said ‘yes’; 37% of LNP supporters said ‘no’ – don’t call an election cf. 63% who said ‘yes’; 65% of Greens supporters said ‘no’ – don’t call an election cf. 35% who said ‘yes’.

By Gender: 51% of Men said ‘no’ – don’t call an election cf. 49% who said 'yes’; 60% of Women said ‘no’ – don’t call an election cf. 40% who said ‘yes’.

By Age: 45% of 18-24 year olds said ‘no’ – don’t call an election cf. 55% who said ‘yes’; 66% of 25-34 year olds said ‘no’ – don’t call an election cf. 34% who said ‘yes’; 59% of 35-49 year olds said ‘no’ – don’t call an election cf. 41% who said ‘yes’; 59% of 50-64 year olds said ‘no’ – don’t call an election cf. 41% who said ‘yes’; 48% of 65+ year olds said ‘no’ – don’t call an election cf. 52% who said ‘yes’.

Queensland State Election is due to be held in early 2018.


NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win an Election easily

2PP: L-NP 55% (down 4.5% since January 29 - February 1, 2016) cf. ALP 45% (up 4.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP 46% (down 6%), ALP 27% (up 2.5%), Greens 15.5% (up 1%), Christian Democrats 3% (up 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 8.5% (up 2%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 64.5% (down 7.5%) cf. Mr. Foley 35.5% (up 7.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird 29% (down 15%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 10.2% (up 1% since  November - December 2015) and under-employment is 7.9% (down 1.9%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 18.1% (down 0.9%). (Interviewed February – March 2016).

New South Wales State Election is due to be held in March 2019.


VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election comfortably

2PP: ALP 55% (up 1.5% since January 29 - February 1, 2016) cf. L-NP 45% (down 1.5%).

Primary vote: ALP 40.5% (up 1.5%), L-NP 39% (down 2%), Greens 12% (down 1%), Family First 2% (up 0.5%), Country Alliance 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 6% (up 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal):
Mr. Andrews 63% (up 0.5%) cf. Mr. Guy 37% (down 0.5%); Lead to Mr. Andrews 26% (up 1%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 11.5% (up 1.6% since November - December 2015) and under-employment is 7.4% (down 4.3%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 18.9% (down 2.7%). (Interviewed  February – March 2016).

Victorian State Election is due to be held in November 2018.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: ALP would win an Election

2PP: ALP 52% (up 6.5% since January 29 - February 1, 2016) cf. L-NP 48% (down 6.5%).

Primary vote: ALP 37% (up 5%), Liberal 33.5% (down 6%), WA Nationals 8% (up 0.5%), Greens 14.5% (up 3%), Family First 1% (unchanged), Christians 1.5% (down 1%), and Independents/ Others 4.5% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP):
Mr. McGowan 62.5% (up 6%) cf. Mr. Barnett 37.5% (down 6%); Lead to Mr McGowan 25% (up 12%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 8.5% (up 1.8% since October – December 2015) and under-employment is 10.1% (up 0.7%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 18.6% (up 2.5%). (Interviewed January – March 2016).

Western Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2017.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP 50% (down 3% since January 29 - February 1, 2016) cf. ALP 50% (up 3%).

Primary vote: L-NP 30% (down 5.5%), ALP 27% (unchanged), Xenophon 24% (up 3.5%), Greens 10.5% (up 1%), Family First 4.5% (down 1%), and Independents/ Others 4% (up 2%).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steven Marshall (Liberal):
Mr. Weatherill 52.5% (down 1%) cf. Mr. Marshall 47.5% (up 1%); Lead to Mr Weatherill 5% (down  2%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 9.7% (down 1.8% since October – December 2015) and under-employment is 10.6% (up 3.3%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 20.3% (up 1.5%). (Interviewed January – March 2016).

South Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


TASMANIA: ALP would win Election

2PP: ALP 53% (up 2.5% since January 29 - February 1, 2016) cf. Liberals 47% (down 2.5%). Estimate: 2PP vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: Liberals 40% (down 3%), ALP 33% (up 2.5%), Greens 21.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 5.5% (up 0.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP):
Mr. Hodgman 57.5% (down 5.5%); Mr. Green 42.5% (up 5.5%); Lead to Mr Hodgman 15% (down 11%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 10% (down 2.9% since October – December 2015) and under-employment is 12.2% (down 0.7%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 22.2% (down 3.6%). (Interviewed January – March 2016).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held before December 31, 2018.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“This week’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted Australia-wide in late March shows the ALP gaining in all six Australian States on a two-party preferred basis at the expense of the L-NP. In Queensland, ALP Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk successfully carried a referendum last week instituting four year Government terms in the State with 52.8% of Queenslanders voting in favour compared to 47.2% that voted against fixed four year terms.

“This successful reform has provided a boost to the Palaszczuk Government, now ahead of the LNP Opposition: ALP 52% (up 4% since early February) cf. LNP 48% (down 4%) on a two-party preferred basis. Palaszczuk has also increased her standing as Queensland’s ‘Better Premier’ with Palaszczuk 63.5% (up 2%) clearly preferred to Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg 36.5% (down 2%).

“When asked whether following the referendum Palaszczuk should call a new Queensland Election a majority 56% of Queensland electors said ‘No’ compared to 44% that said ‘Yes’. This split was evident along party lines. A clear majority of ALP supporters (80%) said ‘No’ while in contrast a clear majority of LNP supporters (63%) said ‘Yes’. Only the youngest and oldest Queenslanders wants a new election: 55% of 18-24yr olds and 52% of those aged 65+ said ‘Yes’ to a new election.

“In Australia’s two biggest States the ALP has improved it’s standing, although in both States the respective Government still hold clear leads. In New South Wales the L-NP 55% (down 4.5%) leads the ALP 45% (up 4.5%) on a two-party referred basis and despite a large drop in personal support Premier Mike Baird remains Australia’s most popular Premier (just) with Baird 64.5% (down 7.5%) cf. Opposition Leader Luke Foley 35.5% (up 7.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“While in Victoria the ALP 55% (up 1.5%) clearly leads the L-NP 45% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis and Daniel Andrews 63% (up 0.5%) is clearly preferred to Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 37% (down 0.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.

“In Western Australia the leadership tension surrounding Opposition Leader Mark McGowan and former ALP Federal Government Minister Stephen Smith appears to have done McGowarn no harm, and rather affirmed his leadership position. The ALP 52% (up 6.5%) is now ahead of the L-NP Government 48% (down 6.5%) on a two-party preferred basis and McGowan 62.5% (up 6%) has extended his lead as ‘Better Premier’ over Premier Colin Barnett 37.5% (down 6%).

“In South Australia the political landscape has been significantly altered by the emergence of the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT), now grabbing a substantial share of the vote. On a primary vote basis the L-NP 30% (down 5.5%), leads the ALP 27% (unchanged) while NXT 24% (up 3.5%) is clearly in a strong position to decide the next Government. The two-party preferred voting intention in South Australia is deadlocked with the L-NP 50% (down 3%) cf. ALP 50% (up 3%). There is also little to separate Premier Jay Weatherill 52.5% (down 1%) cf. Opposition Leader Steven Marshall 47.5% (up 1%) as ‘Better Premier’. In Tasmania the ALP Opposition 53% (up 2.5%) has increased its lead over the Liberal Government  47% (down 2.5%) although Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 57.5% (down 5.5%) still leads Opposition Leader Bryan Green 42.5% (up 5.5%) as ‘Better Premier’.”


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?”

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between March 25-28, 2016 with a cross-section of 4,833 Australian electors including 1,116 New South Wales electors, 1,071 Victorian electors, 821 Queensland electors, 648 South Australian electors, 603 Western Australian electors and 295 Tasmanian electors.


For further information:

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