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L-NP in front again as Turnbull shows leadership

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, March 26/27 & April 2/3, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,174 Australian electors.
In early April L-NP support is 52.5% (up 3%) cf. ALP 47.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win.

Primary support for the L-NP is 42% (up 2%) with ALP at 31% (down 2%). Support for the Greens is down 1% to 13%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4.5% (up 0.5%; 22% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (down 0%) and Independents/ Others are at 9% (up 1%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up this week - up 2.5pts to 106 with 42.5% (down 0.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 36.5% (down 3%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, March 26/27 & April 2/3, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,174 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP easily while women are slightly favouring the ALP.  Men: L-NP 56% (up 4%) cf. ALP 44% (down 4%); Women: ALP 51% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 49% (up 1.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with electors under 50: 18-24yr olds (ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%) and 35-49yr olds (ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%). However, the L-NP leads with the older age groups: 50-64yr olds (L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 63.5% cf. ALP 36.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in three Australian States with three favouring the ALP. The LNP leads in Queensland: LNP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%, Western Australia: L-NP 55% cf. ALP 45%, and New South Wales: L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46% and the ALP leads in South Australia: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%, Victoria: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% and Tasmania: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s Newspoll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the L-NP (51.5%) cf. ALP (48.5%) for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"Today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP 52.5% (up 3%) back in front of the ALP 47.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis after Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull showed leadership which had been lacking for some time.

“Turnbull ‘prorogued’ the Australian Parliament, including a reluctant Senate, to come back and sit for three weeks from mid-April to debate, and pass, the Government’s contentious legislation to reintroduce the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC) – the first time the Australian Parliament has been ‘prorogued’ for nearly 40 years, since 1977.

“Turnbull’s recall of Parliament to debate the legislation carries the explicit threat that if not passed in the three weeks from Monday April 18 he will call a Double Dissolution Federal Election for Saturday July 2 – the first since 1987. Minor party Senate cross-benchers can now decide whether Australia faces an early Double Dissolution Federal Election in July or the Federal Election is later in the year.

“The move by Turnbull came after weeks of back-and-forth arguments about various types of taxation reform – including increasing the GST which failed to ‘inspire’ the Australian electorate – now abandoned by the Turnbull Government in the name of ‘political expediency’.

“By bringing a halt (about two weeks ago) to what seemed like policy ‘drift’ Turnbull has re-established the Federal Government as ‘better managers’ by explicitly linking economic management to union corruption in the building and construction industry.

“This week’s Morgan Poll lift in L-NP support (now L-NP 52.5% cf. ALP 47.5%) shows this message connects strongly to the policies the Turnbull Government will fight the Federal Election.

The Federal Opposition has stated they will campaign at the Federal Election on increasing Federal funding including Health and Education (both State issues) from raising significant revenue from elimination of taxation minimisation. Last weekend Turnbull 'cleverly’ outmanoeuvred the States and Federal Opposition by neutralising health and education funding by offering State Premiers the right to raise their own State income tax – good policy but political suicide!

”In these difficult times, the only real solution is to cut Local, State and Federal Government spending.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6746 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends March 26/27 & April 2/3, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,174 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed  2.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - April 4, 2016

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0