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Election would be too close to call: L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50%; Roy Morgan Government Confidence falls 7pts to 99 – lowest since Turnbull became PM.

Finding No. 6769 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS interviewing over the last two weekends April 9/10 & 16/17, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,083 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% unchanged) did not name a party.
In mid-April L-NP support is 50% (down 2.5%) cf. ALP 50% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis following debate about the reintroduction of the ABCC (Australian Building & Construction Commission) and Labor calls for a Royal Commission into the Banking and Finance industries. If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call and would likely result in a hung Parliament.

Primary support for the L-NP is 40.5% (down 1.5%) with ALP at 32% (up 1%). Support for the Greens is up 1% to 14%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4.5% (unchanged; 22.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (unchanged), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (down 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down this week - down 7pts to 99 with 40.5% (down 2%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (up 5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This is the first time the Government Confidence Rating has dipped below 100 since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister in mid-September 2015.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, April 9/10 & 16/17, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,083 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP easily while women are now easily favouring the ALP.  Men: L-NP 53% (down 3%) cf. ALP 47% (up 3%); Women: ALP 53% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 47% (down 2%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with electors under 50: 18-24yr olds (ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%) and 35-49yr olds (ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%). However, the L-NP leads with the older age groups: 50-64yr olds (L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 61% cf. ALP 39%).

Analysis by States

Despite the deadlock Federally, the L-NP holds a two-party preferred lead in five Australian States with only Victoria favouring the ALP. The L-NP leads in New South Wales: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%, Western Australia: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%, Tasmania: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%, Queensland: LNP 51% cf. ALP 49%, South Australia: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5% and the ALP leads in Victoria: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%. The ALP leads comfortably in both the ACT and Northern Territory (with low sample sizes).

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s Newspoll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the ALP (51%) cf. L-NP (49%) for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"Despite Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull receiving good publicity surrounding last week’s visit to China today’s Morgan Poll shows the L-NP 50% (down 2.5%) dead-locked with the ALP 50% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after Opposition Leader Bill Shorten called for a Royal Commission into the Banking & Finance industry – an idea which found widespread public support.

“Shorten’s ‘bashing’ of the banks will always find favour when the media highlights in detail the misdemeanours committed within the banking and finance industry although the latest Roy Morgan banking satisfaction survey found 82.5% of Australians are personally satisfied in their dealings with Australian banks. Additionally, Australia’s banks easily performed to everyone’s satisfaction during the recent Global Financial Crisis (2008-09) when banks in several other comparable countries were found to be insolvent.

“If today’s dead-even result was replicated at this year’s Federal Election Australia would find itself with a hung Parliament for the second time this decade after former Prime Minister Julia Gillard narrowly retained Government in 2010 despite the ALP winning only 72 seats in the lower house (well below the 76 seats needed for a clear majority to form Government).

“This week’s special recall of Parliament to debate the reinstatement of the ABCC – Australian Building and Construction Commission – will determine whether Australia faces a Double Dissolution Federal Election on Saturday July 2 if the Government’s ABCC Bill is rejected in the Senate, and also whether Turnbull has regained the initiative he has clearly lost in recent weeks as the Government has chopped and changed on policy.

“The Senate cross-benchers are insisting on a National “ICAC” (Independent Commission Against Corruption) being setup to deal with corruption across all sectors of the economy and the Turnbull Government has thus far refused to negotiate. In addition to the broad loss of support in recent weeks a worrying sign for the Turnbull Government is this week’s plunge of the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating to 99 (down 7pts) – the first time this indicator has been in negative territory under 100 since Turnbull became Prime Minister in mid-September 2015.

“The next three weeks leading into the Federal Budget will play an important role in determining whether the Turnbull Government can show leadership and live up to its image as the better economic managers. Malcolm Turnbull needs to convince Australian electors on ‘why’ the construction industry needs to be subjected to additional regulation and the ABCC legislation must be passed; and why the banks are already sufficiently controlled by Government regulation (APRA, ASIC and the RBA). If not the ALP will continue to undermine the Government’s narrative and present itself as a credible Government in waiting.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6769 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends April 9/10 & 16/17, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,083 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 2.5% unchanged) did not name a party.


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Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - April 18, 2016

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0