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National vote lowest since 2014 Election as NZ First vote surges to 20 year high of 12.5%

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 843 electors in April 2016. Of all electors surveyed 7% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.
During April support for National fell 3.5% to 42.5% - the lowest for two years since April – May 2014, now only 2% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 40.5% (down 1.5%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 12.5% (up 3.5% to their highest level of support in twenty years) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, up 0.5% to 1.5%, Act NZ was 1.5% (up 0.5%) – Act NZ’s highest level of support since late 2014 and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support is now at 26% (down 2%), Greens 14.5% (up 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3.5% to 12.5% - its highest level of support since the 1996 NZ Election. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (up 0.5%).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has decreased to 127pts (down 5pts) in April with 57.5% (down 3.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30.5% (up 1.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is much higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is 99pts in April.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows a significant drop in support for National 42.5% (down 3.5% since March) now at its lowest for two years since April-May 2014. However, the fall in support for National hasn’t gone to traditional rivals Labour 26% (down 2%) or the Greens 14.5% (up 0.5%), but centrist party NZ First – now at  a record high 12.5% (up 3.5%).

“In early April NZ First Leader Winston Peters was ejected from Question Time on consecutive days after questioning the Government’s commitment to free travel for senior citizens with the SuperGold card – a policy the Key Government ‘stole’ from NZ First, but then decided to cap, and the following day Peters was ejected from Parliament after questioning the apparent ‘tax haven’ status of New Zealand as revealed by the Panama Papers.

“Peters’ strong stand against the Government, along with an apparent rejection of a joint policy platform with Labour heading towards next year’s New Zealand Election, have won the party a considerable degree of new support. This month’s result for New Zealand First is the highest level of support for NZ First since they captured 13.4% of the vote at the 1996 New Zealand Election – enough to win 17 seats and lead to Peters becoming Deputy Prime Minister of New Zealand and also Treasurer between 1996-1998.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 843 electors in April 2016. Of all electors surveyed 7% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.



For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0