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Turnbull 57% (but down 19%) still preferred Australian PM cf. Shorten 24% (up 10%) after Federal Budget handed down

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights this week, May 4-5, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross section of 584 electors.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull 57% (down a large 19% since a telephone Morgan Poll in October, 2015) is still preferred to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 24% (up 10%) as ‘Better PM’ but much less than he was at the time he became Prime Minister in September 2015 according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last two nights of May 4-5, 2016 following the Federal Budget.

Turnbull still leads among all key Demographics

Analysis by Gender

Men: Turnbull 57% (down 20%) cf. Shorten 26% (up 12%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 31% (down 32%);

Women: Turnbull 58% (down 17%) cf. Shorten 22% (up 9%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 36% (down 26%).

Analysis by Party – Turnbull leads among L-NP electors, but Shorten now ahead with ALP electors

L-NP supporters: Turnbull 90% (down 4%) cf. Shorten 2% (unchanged). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 88% (down 4%);

ALP supporters: Turnbull 31% (down 27%) cf. Shorten 46% (up 15%). Lead to Mr. Shorten 15% (up 42%);

Greens supporters: Turnbull 36% (down 30%) cf. Shorten 50% (up 29%). Lead to Mr. Shorten 14% (up 59%);

Ind/Others supporters: Turnbull 49% (down 22%) cf. Shorten 23% (up 18%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 26% (down 40%).

Analysis by State – Turnbull leads clearly across all States

NSW: Turnbull 58% (down 21%) cf. Shorten 24% (up 10%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 34% (down 31%);

Victoria: Turnbull 49% (down 26%) cf. Shorten 32% (up 20%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 17% (down 46%);

Queensland: Turnbull 60% (down 13%) cf. Shorten 21% (up 4%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 39% (down 17%);

WA: Turnbull 66% (down 13%) cf. Shorten 13% (up 3%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 53% (down 16%);

SA: Turnbull 55% (down 19%) cf. Shorten 22% (up 7%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 33% (down 26%);

Tasmania: Turnbull 59% (unchanged) cf. Shorten 35% (up 4%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 24% (down 4%);

Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove

Less than half of Australian electors 43% (down a large 23%) now approve of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of his job as Prime Minister while 41% (up 25%) disapprove and 16% (down 2%) can’t say.

A similar proportion of men 44% (down 22%) approve of Turnbull’s handing of the job as Prime Minister as disapprove 43% (up 26%). Of women 43% (down 23%) approve while 39% (up 25%) disapprove of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of the job as Prime Minister.

 Australian electors have a different view of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader. Just short of a majority of 49% (down 13%) disapprove, while 34% (up 9%) approve and a further 17% (up 4%) can’t say.

Neither gender is impressed with Shorten’s handling of the job with over half of all men 52% (down 13%) disapproving of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of the job while 36% (up 9%) approve. In addition slightly less than a majority of women: 46% (down 12%) disapprove cf. 32% (up 9%) approve.

Gary Morgan says:

“This week’s special telephone Morgan Poll shows that despite a large drop in support for Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull over the past six months, Turnbull 57% (down 19%) is still clearly preferred to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 24% (up 10%) as ‘Better Prime Minister’ after Treasurer Scott Morrison handed down his first Federal Budget and Turnbull prepares to call an early Federal Election this weekend.

“Despite large movements over the past six months Australian electors still narrowly give Turnbull a positive rating for ‘job performance’ with 43% (down 23%) approving of Turnbull’s handling of the job as Prime Minister compared to 41% (up 25%) that disapprove of Turnbull’s performance.

“In contrast, and despite improving his standing, Shorten is set to enter the Federal Election campaign with a negative view of his job performance as Opposition Leader amongst Australian electors: 49% (down 13%) disapprove cf. 34% (up 9%) approve.

Another special telephone Morgan Poll conducted concurrently this week shows while Turnbull (41%) is still the clearly preferred Liberal Party Leader ahead of Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop (24%), Shorten (14%) is only third in line as preferred Labor Leader behind Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek (22%) and Shadow Minister for Infrastructure & Transport Anthony Albanese (20%).”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights this week, May 4-5, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross section of 584 electors.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

For the ‘poll-watchers’ out there this latest telephone Morgan Poll revealed a two-party preferred lead for the L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% based on how a cross-section of 584 Australian electors said they would vote – a direct reversal of the latest multi-mode Morgan Poll conducted over the last two weekends which showed the L-NP 49% cf. ALP 51% on a two-party preferred basis.


Better Prime Minister: Turnbull v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Malcolm Turnbull and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Turnbull or Mr. Shorten?”

Prime Minister Tony Abbott v  Bill Shorten

PM Malcolm Turnbull
v Bill Shorten

June
2014

Oct
2014

Jan
2015

Apr
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Sep 15,
2015
*

Oct 20-22,
2015

May 4-5,
2016

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Prime Minister

Abbott/ Turnbull

38

44

41

44

42

70

76

57

Shorten

43

37

43

39

41

24

14

24

Abbott/ Turnbull lead

(5)

7

(2)

5

1

46

62

33

Neither / Can’t say

19

19

16

17

17

6

10

19

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100









*This special Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted on Tuesday September 15, 2015 – the day Malcolm Turnbull was sworn in as Australia’s 29th Prime Minister replacing former Prime Minister Tony Abbott.

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

May 4-5,
2016

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

57

57

58

56

43

63

57

64

Shorten

24

26

22

21

28

21

28

21

Turnbull lead

33

31

36

35

15

42

29

43

Neither/ Can’t say

19

17

20

23

29

16

15

15

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100



Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

May 4-5,
2016

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/
Others

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

57

90

31

36

49

14

Shorten

24

2

46

50

23

-

Turnbull lead

33

88

(15)

(14)

26

14

Neither/ Can’t say

19

8

23

14

28

86

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


Approval of Leaders – Malcolm Turnbull v Bill Shorten

Prime Minister: Malcolm Turnbull

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Turnbull is handling his job as Prime Minister?” 

PM Kevin Rudd

Prime Minister Tony Abbott

PM Malcolm Turnbull

Aug 28/29,
2013

June 4-6,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

Apr 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Oct 20-22,
2015

May 4-5,
2016

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

36

34

44

37

37

34

66

43

Disapprove

53

59

47

52

53

59

16

41

Approve -
Disapprove

(17)

(25)

(3)

(15)

(16)

(25)

50

2

Can’t say

11

7

9

11

10

7

18

16

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

May 4-5,
2016

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

43

44

43

40

47

43

41

46

Disapprove

41

43

39

40

34

40

46

41

Approve -
Disapprove

2

1

4

-

13

3

(5)

5

Can’t say

16

13

18

20

19

17

13

13

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100



Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

May 4-5,
2016

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/
Others

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

43

71

22

26

36

-

Disapprove

41

18

60

60

52

32

Approve -
Disapprove

2

53

(38)

(34)

(16)

(32)

Can’t say

16

11

18

14

12

68

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


Opposition Leader: Bill Shorten

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Shorten is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

Tony Abbott
as Oppn. Ldr

Bill Shorten as Opposition Leader

Aug 28/29,
2013

June 4-6,
2014

Sep 30-Oct 2,
2014

Jan 12-13,
2015

Apr 21-23,
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Oct 20-22,
2015

May 4-5,
2016

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

41

35

37

37

34

24

25

34

Disapprove

51

45

42

40

48

60

62

49

Approve -
Disapprove

(10)

(10)

(5)

(3)

(14)

(36)

(37)

(15)

Can’t say

8

20

21

23

18

16

13

17

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

May 4-5,
2016

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

34

36

32

34

41

26

36

34

Disapprove

49

52

46

40

39

56

50

52

Approve -
Disapprove

(15)

(16)

(14)

(6)

2

(30)

(14)

(18)

Can’t say

17

12

22

26

20

18

14

14

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

May 4-5,
2016

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/
Others

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

Approve

34

24

51

39

22

-

Disapprove

49

62

30

41

68

39

Approve -
Disapprove

(15)

(38)

21

(2)

(46)

(39)

Can’t say

17

14

19

20

10

61

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.3

±3.8

±2.6

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4