This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 960 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend May 7/8, 2016.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at 113.9 this week. While the RBA’s cut to the official cash rate last week is likely to have been well received, any positive impact looks to have been somewhat offset by consumers’ reaction to the Commonwealth Budget. According to the polls, the reaction has been largely one of moderate ‘disapproval’.
ANZ Head of Australian Economics Felicity Emmett commented:
- Consumers’ views towards their own finances and the economic outlook were flat to down. Views towards current finances were down 0.8%, future finances were down 0.6%, economic conditions in the next 12 months down 1.2%, and economic conditions in the next 5 years were flat.
- In contrast, consumers’ views towards buying a household item were upbeat, rising 2.2% to above their long-run average, likely boosted by the rate cut.
“ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence was unchanged at 113.9 following a mixed bag of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ news flow during the week. Typically a cut in the RBA’s cash rate tends to lift confidence, and on its own we expect that was a positive factor for confidence given the lift in consumers’ views towards buying a household item.
On the other hand, it seems that consumer reaction to the Commonwealth Budget is likely to have weighed on confidence. The Fairfax/Ipsos post-Budget poll showed that 46% of households disapproved of the Budget while only 39% approved. While this is a better reaction than the one to the 2014 Budget, the lack of traction from the Budget would be disappointing given the Government is now in election mode. With the Coalition and Labor running head-to-head in the polls, the Government has its work cut out for it to win over the electorate by the 2 July election.
"While confidence remains above its long-run average, we expect it to remain sensitive towards developments in the domestic data and policy front in the near term.”
Click to view the PDF of the ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
The week that was - May 2-8, 2016