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ALP in front but Election too close to call: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%; Roy Morgan Government Confidence falls to 98 – lowest since Turnbull became PM.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, April 23/24, 30 & May 1, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,951 Australian electors.
In early May ALP support 51% (up 1%) is again in front of the L-NP 49% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis. This is the best result for ALP since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister in September 2015. However, if a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call and would likely result in a hung Parliament.

Primary support for the L-NP is 40% (down 0.5%) with ALP at 32.5% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens is down 0.5% to 13.5%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4% (down 0.5%; 20.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 1% (up 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 9% (up 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down slightly this week - down 1pt to 98 with 39.5% (down 1%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (unchanged) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This is the lowest the Government Confidence Rating has been since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, April 23/24, 30 & May 1, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,951 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP while women are easily favouring the ALP.  Men: L-NP 52% (down 1%) cf. ALP 48% (up 1%); Women: ALP 54% (up 1%) cf. L-NP 46% (down 1%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads easily with electors under 35: 18-24yr olds (ALP 63% cf. L-NP 37%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%) and the L-NP now leads with 35-49yr olds (L-NP 51.5% cf. ALP 48.5%). However the 50-64yr olds are split (L-NP 50% cf. ALP 50%) and L-NP leads easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 59.5% cf. ALP 40.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in only two Australian States. The LNP leads in Queensland: LNP 52% cf. ALP 48% and Western Australia: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%. The ALP now leads in Victoria: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%, South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%, Tasmania: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5% and New South Wales: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s Newspoll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the ALP (50.5%) cf. L-NP (49.5%) for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"The ALP 51% (up 1%) has a narrow lead over the L-NP 49% (down 1%) on a two-party preferred basis as Treasurer Scott Morrison prepares to deliver his important first Federal Budget tomorrow night. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has confirmed he will call a Double Dissolution Federal Election for Saturday July 2 by the end of this week.

“The looming Federal Election means tomorrow’s Federal Budget is the Turnbull Government’s best chance to shape the narrative and lay out the ground on which this year’s Federal Election will be fought. Some parts of the Budget have already been leaked including tax cuts for middle-income Australians earning $80,000+, cuts to generous high-end superannuation tax concessions, additional company tax cuts and a significant boost to infrastructure spending around Australia.

“It’s reported the Treasurer will announce infrastructure spending of over $2 billion in both New South Wales and Victoria as well as hundreds of millions of dollars for the other mainland States of Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.

“The Government has clearly gone into ‘election-mode’ already with the announcement last week of a $50 billion defence spending commitment to build 12 new Shortfin Barracuda submarines in South Australia – although under contract to French company DCNS (Direction des Constructions Navales Services).

“An additional concern for the Government, which will start the official Federal Election campaign behind the Opposition, is the continuing drop in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – now at 98 (down 1pt) – the lowest it’s been since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister in September 2015.”

 

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6791 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing over the last two weekends April 23/24, 30 & May 1, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,951 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 3% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - May 2, 2016

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0