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Australian April unemployment is 10.4% for third consecutive year. Under-employment steady at 7.7%

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 480,317 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – April 2016 and includes 4,282 face-to-face interviews in April 2016.
April unemployment has fallen 0.6% to 10.4% - now 4.7% higher than the current ABS figure for March 2016 (5.7%). In April 2.322 million Australians (18.1% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed.

  • This is the third consecutive year the Roy Morgan April unemployment rate has been 10.4%.

  • There are 12,810,000 Australians in the workforce in April, down 134,000, from a month ago (although up 183,000 since April 2015) and 11,476,000 Australians are employed (up 158,000 since April 2015);

  • Now 7,647,000 Australians are employed full-time – up 85,000 since April 2015 and  3,829,000 Australians (up 73,000) are part-time workers;

  • Now 10.4% of the workforce, 1,334,000 people, are unemployed – up 25,000 since April 2015 with the unemployment rate unchanged from a year ago while 988,000 Australians are under-employed – working part-time and looking for more hours (7.7% of the workforce – down 149,000 (down 1.3%));

  • Now a total of 2,322,000 Australians are unemployed or under-employed: a large 18.1% of the workforce – although this is down 124,000 (down 1.3%) since April 2015.

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimate

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2015

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan-Mar 2015

2,384

18.9

1,327

10.5

656

672

1,057

8.4

Apr-Jun 2015

2,359

18.7

1,263

10.0

618

645

1,096

8.7

Jul-Sep 2015

2,061

16.2

1,109

8.7

518

591

952

7.5

Oct-Dec 2015

2,475

19.2

1,184

9.2

603

581

1,291

10.0

2016

Jan-Mar 2016

2,496

19.1

1,362

10.4

639

723

1,134

8.7

Months

March 2015

2,344

18.5

1,368

10.8

742

626

976

7.7

April 2015

2,446

19.4

1,309

10.4

656

653

1,137

9.0

May 2015

2,310

18.5

1,289

10.3

646

643

1,021

8.2

June 2015

2,321

18.2

1,192

9.3

552

640

1,129

8.9

July 2015

2,074

16.4

1,097

8.7

525

572

977

7.7

August 2015

2,117

16.6

1,173

9.2

548

625

944

7.4

September 2015

1,994

15.6

1,058

8.3

482

576

936

7.3

October 2015

2,198

17.4

1,110

8.8

464

646

1,088

8.6

November 2015

2,536

19.6

1,186

9.2

623

563

1,350

10.4

December 2015

2,690

20.7

1,256

9.7

722

534

1,434

11.0

January 2016

2,575

19.7

1,346

10.3

696

650

1,229

9.4

February 2016

2,480

18.8

1,319

10.0

589

730

1,161

8.8

March 2016

2,433

18.8

1,422

11.0

631

791

1,011

7.8

April 2016

2,322

18.1

1,334

10.4

611

723

988

7.7

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“In April Australia’s real unemployment fell to 10.4% (1.334 million people looking for work, however 25,000 more than a year ago) and under-employment was at 7.7% (988,000, down 149,000 in a year) – a total of 18.1% (2.322 million) Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

“Roy Morgan unemployment traditionally shows a decrease in April, and has now fallen in seven out of the last ten years since 2007 in April. Over the past year both full-time employment 7,647,000 (up 85,000) and part-time employment 3,829,000 (up 73,000) have increased by a similar amount although the increase in the size of the overall workforce over the past year to 12,810,000 (up 183,000) means the actual number of unemployed is slightly higher than this time a year ago.

“Over the weekend Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull called an election for Saturday July 2 and already there are clear differences between the two major parties in how they would deal with the largest issue facing Australia – the large number of unemployed and under-employed Australians.

“The L-NP has outlined plans to introduce extensive paid internships to help younger Australians with the PaTH (Prepare, Trial, Hire) internships program which has been immediately opposed by the unions and criticised by Labor which says the program will exploit younger workers and take jobs that will normally be filled by regular employees. However, it’s not good enough for Labor to merely oppose a program that offers hope to younger Australians; they must come up with a better plan to deal with the ongoing problem of youth unemployment.

“Last week’s decision by the RBA to cut Australian interest rates to a record low 1.75% shows the weakness the overall Australian economy is facing. The RBA’s decision to cut interest rates followed the announcement the week before that Australian CPI figures had turned to deflation of 0.2% in the March Quarter 2016, and an annual change of only +1.3%.

“In addition, the ongoing job losses throughout the Australian economy (Arrium, Queensland Nickel, Masters, Dick Smith, Electrolux etc.) also provide clear evidence that the ABS unemployment figures released monthly lack credibility. ABS estimated unemployment of only 5.7% in March indicating a booming Australian economy which is most certainly not reflected in other measures and clearly not believed by the RBA which is once again cutting interest rates.

“The major problem facing the Australian economy as Australia heads towards another Federal Election is that both sides of politics continue to base their economic modelling on the wrong unemployment data and because of this they will not advocate the correct policy reforms that need to be undertaken to ‘free-up’ the Australian labour market.

“Stimulating real growth in the Australian economy is the most effective way there is to create jobs for unemployed and under-employed Australians. In addition by continuing to use ‘wrong data’ there will be a large group of people (unemployed and under-employed) who will be disenfranchised and angry with whichever Government is elected in early July.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 480,317 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – April 2016 and includes 4,282 face-to-face interviews in April 2016.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS put their ‘heads in the sand’ and refuse to accept the reality and does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).


For further information

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2016)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2016)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2016)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2016)

Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment Figures - April 2016 - 10.4%

Roy Morgan Quarterly Unemployment - March Quarter 2016 - 10.4%

Roy Morgan Monthly Under-employment - April 2016 - 18.1%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

% Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2