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In the first week of the campaign ALP grabs election winning lead: ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend, May 14/15, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,318 Australian electors.
In mid-May ALP support 52.5% (up 1.5%) is now clearly in front of the L-NP 47.5% (down 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis after the first week of official campaigning following Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s decision to call a Double Dissolution Election for Saturday July 2.

This is easily the best result for ALP since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister in September 2015 and if a Federal Election were held now the ALP would win.

Primary support for the L-NP is 36.5% (down 3.5%) with ALP at 33% (up 0.5%). Support for the Greens is up 2% to 15.5%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 5% (up 1%; 19.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 9.5% (up 0.5%).

The massive vote for minority parties (30.5%) suggests that today they would definitely control the Senate and the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) could control the House of Representatives.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up this week to 102 with 41.5% (up 2%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 39.5% (down 2%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted last weekend, May 14/15, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,318 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows women heavily favouring the ALP and men slightly in favour of the L-NP.  Men: L-NP 51% (down 1%) cf. ALP 49% (up 1%); Women: ALP 56.5% (up 2.5%) cf. L-NP 43.5% (down 2.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads easily with electors under 50: 18-24yr olds (ALP 65.5% cf. L-NP 34.5%), and 25-34yr olds (ALP 67% cf. L-NP 33%) and 35-49yr olds (ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%). However the L-NP leads the 50-64yr olds (L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%) and the L-NP leads easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 60.5% cf. ALP 39.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in only one Australian State. The ALP leads in Tasmania: ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5%, Victoria: ALP 56.5% cf. L-NP 43.5%, Western Australia: ALP 54% cf. L-NP 46%, South Australia: ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47% and New South Wales: ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% and the L-NP leads in only Queensland: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%.

The Morgan Poll surveys a larger sample (including people who only use a mobile phone) than any other public opinion poll. The Morgan Poll asks Minor Party supporters which way they will vote their preferences. *News Corp’s Newspoll does not measure or reference the PUP or NXT vote!

The Morgan Poll allocated preferences based on how people say they will vote – allocating preferences by how electors voted at the last Federal Election, (as used by News Corp’s Newspoll) shows the ALP (52%) cf. L-NP (48%) for trends see the Morgan Poll historic data table.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman Roy Morgan Research says:

"The ALP 52.5% (up 1.5%) has an election-winning two-party preferred lead over the L-NP 47.5% (down 1.5%) after the first week of official campaigning. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull called the Federal Election just over a week ago and today’s Morgan Poll shows the first week has been won by Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.

“The ALP increased support strongly in Western Australia ALP 54% (up 5%) cf. L-NP 46% (down 5%) and Tasmania ALP 57% (up 5%) cf. L-NP 43% (down 5%) after the first week and there were also smaller swings to the ALP in Victoria and Queensland.

“However, there is still a long way to go in the Federal Election campaign and the massive vote (30.5%) for the minor parties shows the minor parties today would definitely hold the balance of power in the Senate and led by the Greens and the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) could also control the balance of power in the House of Representatives.

“The strong performance of the minor parties in today’s Morgan Poll shows that neither Turnbull nor Shorten has successfully articulated clear policies and a plan that minor party supporters will vote for.”

 

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party would receive your first preference?”

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our range of Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Finding No. 6808 – This multi-mode Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face and SMS  interviewing last weekend May 14/15, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,318 Australian electors aged 18+, of all electors surveyed 3% (unchanged) did not name a party.


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

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Michele Levine:

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Data Tables

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - May 16, 2016

Roy Morgan GCR

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

500

±4.5

±3.9

±2.7

±1.9

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0