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National and Labour vote up in May but NZ First still holds the balance of power position despite vote falling

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 870 electors in May 2016. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.
During May support for National rose 3% to 45.5%, now ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 41.5% (up 1%). If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9.5% (even though down 3% still NZ First’s second highest level of support in twenty years) would be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners fell slightly with the Maori Party, down 0.5% to 1.0%, Act NZ was 1% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support was at 29.5% (up 3.5% to their highest support since November 2015), Greens 12% (down 2.5%) and NZ First 9.5% (down 3%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1% (up 0.5%).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 130pts (up 3pts) in May with 59% (up 1.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 29% (down 1.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. New Zealand Government Confidence is much higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is 102pts in May.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for National rebounding to 45.5% (up 3% since April) now well ahead of traditional rivals Labour 29.5% (up 3.5%). Support has risen for both major parties at the expense of potential Labour allies the Greens 12% (down 2.5%) and New Zealand First 9.5% (down 3%).

“Despite support for New Zealand First coming down from a 20-year high in April, support is still above what NZ First achieved at the 2014 New Zealand Election (8.7%) and means New Zealand First would still have the balance of power were a New Zealand Election held now.

“The strong performance for National over the past month follows Prime Minister John Key’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in late April to discuss broadening and strengthening the already tight trade relationship between New Zealand and China. The two countries already have a Free Trade Agreement which has proven a boon for New Zealand’s dairy industry in recent years. The rise in support for National is also supported by the increase in the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – now at 130 (up 3pts).”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 870 electors in May 2016. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.



For further information:

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Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0