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ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence remains upbeat at 144.0
May 19 2016
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence survey elicits respondents' expectations of inflation and prices. Data in May was collected from a sample of 1,000 Chinese aged 14+ (12,000 per annum) by telephone. The survey is conducted in metropolitan and outer urban areas - not only are 1st, 2nd and 3rd Tier cities included, but Tier 4 cities are also surveyed every month. The robust, representative sample is stratified geographically, with quotas controlled by gender and age.
ANZ Economist Louis Lam said:
- The ANZ-Roy Morgan China Consumer Confidence Index declined to 144.0 in May, down from 145.0 in the previous month.
- In terms of personal finances, 49.5% (prev: 46.9%) of the respondents said that their families are ‘better off’ financially. Meanwhile, 18.4% (prev: 16.3%) said that they are ‘worse off’. On the outlook for their own personal financial situations, 66.4% (prev: 68.7%) of the respondents expect their families to be ‘better off’ next year, compared with 6.4% (prev: 5.4%) who expect conditions to be ‘worse off’.
- On economic conditions, the number of respondents who expect China to have ‘good times’ over the next year declined to 55.8% (prev: 56.1%), while those who expect economic ‘bad times’ rose to 17.2% (prev: 14.0%). On longer-term economic performance, 63.5% (prev: 63.9%) expect China to have ‘good times’ and 14.7% (prev: 14.9%) said that there will be ‘bad times’.
- Respondents who said that it is a ‘good time’ to buy major items rose to 47.1% (prev: 46.3%), while the number of respondents who said that it is a ‘bad time’ to do so edged down to 5.7% (prev: 6.4%).
- Inflation expectations eased further to 3.67% (prev: 4.02%) in May.
“Sentiment remains elevated following April’s strong rebound. Despite the slight fall in the headline index in May, consumer confidence remains well above the average level over the past year. This is also the second highest reading over the past twelve months, second only to that in April 2016.
"Strong consumption will continue to be a cornerstone of the Chinese economy, with private consumption contributing 5.7ppt towards the GDP growth of 6.7% in Q1 2016. This development will continue to underpin a decent growth momentum in Q2 GDP which is forecast to be 6.5%.”
Click to view the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Chinese Consumer Confidence Release PDF - May 2016.
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