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L-NP in front in NSW & WA and ALP well in front in Victoria but parties dead-level in Queensland after LNP elect new Leader Tim Nicholls

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between May 20 - 22, 2016 with a cross-section of 5,071 Australian electors including 850 New South Wales electors, 1,041 Victorian electors, 915 Queensland electors, 802 South Australian electors, 770 Western Australian electors and 355 Tasmanian electors.

In NSW the Baird Government maintains a strong lead: L-NP 53.5% cf. ALP 46.5% and in WA the Barnett Government now has the lead: L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49%. Support for the Andrews Government has risen in Victoria with two-party support: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%. In Queensland new Oppositon Leader Tim Nicholls has boosted support for the LNP 50% now dead-level with the ALP 50%. This Morgan Poll on State voting intention was conducted in late May with a representative cross-section of  5,071 Australian electors.


QUEENSLAND: Election would be too close to call

2PP: ALP 50% (down 2% since March 25-28, 2016) cf. LNP 50% (up 2%). Female electors: ALP 53% (down 2%) cf. L-NP 47% (up 2%). Male electors: LNP 53% (up 1.5%) cf. ALP 47% (down 1.5%).

Primary vote electors: LNP 40.5% (up 0.5%), ALP 35.5% (down 2%),  Greens 10.5% (down 2%), Katter’s Australian Party 4.5% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%), Independents/ Others 7.5% (up 3%). Female electors: ALP 40.5% (down 2.5%), LNP 39% (unchanged), Greens 9% (down 2.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 4.5% (up 3%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), Independents/ Others 5.5% (up 2%). Male electors: LNP 42.5% (up 1.5%), ALP 30% (down 2%), Greens 12% (down 1.5%), Katter’s Australian Party 4.5% (down 1%), Family First 2% (down 0.5%), Independents/ Others 9% (up 3.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk (ALP) v Tim Nicholls (LNP) electors:
Ms. Palaszczuk 57.5% (down 6%) cf. Mr. Nicholls 42.5% (up 6% from former Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg); Lead to Ms Palaszczuk 15% (down 12%). Female electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 64% (down 1.5%) cf. Mr. Nicholls 36% (up 1.5%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk  28% (down 3%). Male electors: Ms. Palaszczuk 50.5% (down 11%) cf. Mr. Nicholls 49.5% (up 11%). Lead to Ms. Palaszczuk 1% (down 22%).

Queensland real unemployment is now 11.7% (down 0.4% since February – March 2016) and under-employment is 8.6% (up 1%). This means total Queensland unemployment & under-employment is 20.3% up 0.6%). (Interviewed March - April 2016).

Queensland State Election is due to be held in early 2018.


NEW SOUTH WALES: L-NP would win an Election easily

2PP: L-NP 53.5% (down 1.5% since March 25-28, 2016) cf. ALP 46.5% (up 1.5%).

Primary vote: L-NP 46% (unchanged), ALP 29% (up 2%), Greens 17% (up 1.5%), Christian Democrats 2.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/ Others 5.5% (down 3%).

Better Premier: Premier Mike Baird (Liberal) v Luke Foley (ALP):
Mr. Baird 62% (down 2.5%) cf. Mr. Foley 38% (up 2.5%); Lead to Mr. Baird 24% (down 5%).

New South Wales real unemployment is now 11.2% (up 1% since  February - March 2016) and under-employment is 7.3% (down 0.6%). This means total New South Wales unemployment & under-employment is 18.5% (up 0.4%). (Interviewed March – April 2016).

New South Wales State Election is due to be held in March 2019.


VICTORIA: ALP would win an Election comfortably

2PP: ALP 56% (up 1% since March 25 - 28, 2016) cf. L-NP 44% (down 1%).

Primary vote: ALP 40.5% (unchanged), L-NP 38% (down 1%), Greens 13% (up 1%), Family First 1% (down 1%), Country Alliance 0.5% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others 7% (up 1%).

Better Premier: Premier Daniel Andrews (ALP) v Matthew Guy (Liberal):
Mr. Andrews 63.5% (up 0.5%) cf. Mr. Guy 36.5% (down 0.5%); Lead to Mr. Andrews 27% (up 1%).

Victorian real unemployment is now 10.3% (down 1.2% since February - March 2016) and under-employment is 7.5% (up 0.1%). This means total Victorian unemployment & under-employment is 17.8% (down 1.1%). (Interviewed  March - April 2016).

Victorian State Election is due to be held in November 2018.


WESTERN AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP% 51% (up 3% since March 25 - 28, 2016) cf. ALP 49% (down 3%).

Primary vote: Liberal 36.5% (up 3%), WA Nationals 7% (down 1%), ALP 34% (down 3%), Greens 12.5% (down 2%), Family First 1% (unchanged), Christians 2.5% (up 1%) and Independents/ Others 6.5% (up 2%).

Better Premier: Premier Colin Barnett (Liberal) v Mark McGowan (ALP):
Mr. McGowan 60.5% (down 2%) cf. Mr. Barnett 39.5% (up 2%); Lead to Mr McGowan 21% (down 4%).

Western Australian real unemployment is now 7.7% (down 0.8% since January - March 2016) and under-employment is 9.5% (down 0.6%). This means total Western Australian unemployment & under-employment is 17.2% (down 1.4%). (Interviewed February – April 2016).

Western Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2017.


SOUTH AUSTRALIA: Election would be too close to call

2PP: L-NP 52% (up 2% since March 25-28, 2016) cf. ALP 48% (down 2%).

Primary vote: L-NP 31% (up 1%), ALP 25.5% (down 1.5%), Xenophon 28% (up 4%), Greens 8% (down 2.5%), Family First 5% (up 0.5%), and Independents/ Others 2.5% (down 1.5%).

Better Premier: Premier Jay Weatherill (ALP) v Steven Marshall (Liberal):
Mr. Weatherill 55% (up 2.5%) cf. Mr. Marshall 45% (down 2.5%); Lead to Mr Weatherill 10% (up 5%).

South Australian real unemployment is now 10.8% (up 1.1% since January – March 2016) and under-employment is 9.1% (down 1.5%). This means total South Australian unemployment & under-employment is 19.9% (down 0.4%). (Interviewed February - April 2016).

South Australian State Election is due to be held in March 2018.


TASMANIA: ALP would win close Election

2PP: ALP 52% (down 1% since March 25-28, 2016) cf. Liberals 48% (up 1%). Estimate: 2PP vote is not applicable to the Tasmanian lower house which uses the Hare-Clark proportional voting system.

Primary vote: Liberals 41% (up 1%), ALP 34.5% (up 1.5%), Greens 17% (down 4.5%) and Independents/ Others 7.5% (up 2%).

Better Premier: Premier Will Hodgman (Liberal) v Bryan Green (ALP):
Mr. Hodgman 56.5% (down 1%); Mr. Green 43.5% (up 1%); Lead to Mr Hodgman 13% (down 2%).

Tasmanian real unemployment is now 11.7% (up 1.7% since January - March 2016) and under-employment is 10.7% (down 1.5%). This means total Tasmanian unemployment & under-employment is 22.4% (up 0.2%). (Interviewed February - April 2016).

Tasmanian State Election is due to be held before December 31, 2018.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s special SMS State Morgan Poll conducted Australia-wide in late May shows new Queensland Opposition LNP Leader Tim Nicholls has helped boost support for the LNP 50% (up 2%) cf. ALP (down 2%) on a two-party preferred basis.

“Nicholls 42.5% (up 6%) has also closed the gap on Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk 57.5% (down 6%) as ‘Better Premier’. The surge to Nicholls has come almost entirely from Queensland men with 49.5% of men (up 11%) rating Nicholls as ‘Better Premier’ only just behind Palaszczuk 50.5% (down 11%).

“For the first time since he became Premier of Australia’s largest State, New South Wales, in April 2014 Mike Baird is no longer Australia’s most popular Premier – now 62% (down 2.5%) of NSW electors regard Baird as the ‘Better Premier’ compared to Opposition Leader Luke Foley 38% (up 2.5%) – still a clear lead for Baird.

“The L-NP 53.5% (down 1.5%) now leads the ALP 46.5% (up 1.5%) on a two-party preferred basis in New South Wales, the closest the ALP has been since Foley was elected ALP Leader in January 2015. The loss in support for the L-NP Government comes amid tough reforms being carried out, in Sydney in particular, with the controversial council amalgamations provoking a significant backlash.

“Further south in Victoria the ALP 56% (up 1%) has strengthened its two-party preferred lead over the L-NP 44% (down 1%) – now the largest lead in the nation. In addition, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews 63.5% (up 0.5%) has taken Baird’s mantle as Australia’s most popular Premier, now well ahead of Opposition Leader Matthew Guy 36.5% (down 0.5%).

“In South Australia the emergence of the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) continues – now overtaking the ALP on a primary vote basis: L-NP 31% (up 1%) cf. NXT 28% (up 4%) cf. ALP 25.5% (down 1.5%). The largest victims of the surge for NXT appear to be the Greens 8% (down 2.5%). This is clearly the lowest Greens vote in any State.

“The two-party preferred voting intention in South Australia now favours the L-NP 52% (up 2%) cf. ALP 48% (down 2%), however Premier Jay Weatherill 55% (up 2.5%) has increased his lead over Opposition Leader Steven Marshall 45% (down 2.5%) and is clearly the best asset of the 14yr old State Government, Australia’s oldest.

“In Western Australia the L-NP Government 51% (up 3%) has regained the lead over the ALP 49% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis, however, Opposition Leader Mark McGowan 60.5% (down 2%) is clearly still preferred to Premier Colin Barnett 39.5% (up 2%) as ‘Better Premier’. In Tasmania the ALP Opposition 52% (down 1%) has a small lead over the Liberal Government  48% (up 1%) although Liberal Premier Will Hodgman 56.5% (down 1%) still leads Opposition Leader Bryan Green 43.5% (up 1%) as ‘Better Premier’."


For the poll-watchers:

Electors were asked: “If a State Election for NSW/ Victoria/ Queensland/ WA/ SA/ Tasmania were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Electors were then asked: “Thinking of (Premier) and (Opposition Leader). In your opinion, who would make the better Premier?”

The SMS Morgan Poll on State voting intention and preferred Premiers was conducted between May 20 - 22, 2016 with a cross-section of 5,071 Australian electors including 850 New South Wales electors, 1,041 Victorian electors, 915 Queensland electors, 802 South Australian electors, 770 Western Australian electors and 355 Tasmanian electors.

For further information:

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