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National and Labour down in June but New Zealand First still holds the balance of power if Election was held now

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 868 electors in June 2016. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.
During June support for National fell 2.5% to 43%, now just ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 42.5% (up 1%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 9% would still be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.

Support for the National partners was up slightly with the Maori Party, up 1% to 2%, Act NZ was 0.5% (down 0.5%) and United Future was 0% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support was at 28% (down 1.5%), Greens 14.5% (up 2.5%) and NZ First 9% (down 0.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ was 1% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0.5% (up 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (up 0.5%).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has decreased to 120.5pts (down 9.5pts) in June with 54.5% (down 4.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 34% (up 5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. New Zealand Government Confidence is much higher than in Australia – Australian Government Confidence is 109pts in June.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support dropping for both major parties – National is at 43% (down 2.5%) and Labour at 28% (down 1.5%). However, a rise in support for the Greens 14.5% (up 2.5%) means a Labour/ Greens alliance 42.5% is neck-and-neck with National. Today’s result leaves New Zealand First 9% (down 0.5%) still in the strong position to determine who will form the next Government if an election were held today.

“The drop in support for National comes after Prime Minister John Key and Defence Minister Gerry Brownlee announced a $20 billion package of spending to upgrade New Zealand’s Defence force capabilities over the next 15 years.

“The announcement in early June has certainly failed to give a boost in support for National, and in addition the Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 120.5 – its lowest since August 2015.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 868 electors in June 2016. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0