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Nick Xenophon Team looks likely to nick L-NP seats of Mayo & Grey

Roy Morgan’s seat-by-seat analysis in all 11 South Australian seats over the past two months – April–June 2016 are based on interviews with 1,951 South Australian electors between April 2/3, 2016 and June 11/12, 2016. which is approximately 180 electors per seat analysed.

The big rise of the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) in South Australia has thrown the political calculus of the ‘Festival State’ into chaos – so how will their significant share of the vote impact on who will win South Australia’s 11 seats?

Roy Morgan’s seat-by-seat analysis in all 11 South Australian seats over the past two months – April–June 2016 are based on interviews with 1,951 South Australian electors between April 2/3, 2016 and June 11/12, 2016. which is approximately 180 electors per seat analysed.

Currently the L-NP holds six South Australian seats: Barker, Boothby, Grey, Hindmarsh, Mayo & Sturt.

The ALP currently holds five South Australian seats: Adelaide, Kingston, Makin, Port Adelaide & Wakefield.

Analysing all seats closely shows that of the top 5 seats that the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) is polling in four are L-NP seats (Barker, Grey, Mayo & Sturt) and only one is an ALP seat (Kingston).

Voting intention in the 4 L-NP held seats of Barker, Grey, Mayo & Sturt.

  • Barker L-NP (37.0%), ALP (24.0%), NXT (23.0%), Greens (7.0%) & Others (9.0%);
  • Grey    L-NP (31%),ALP (32.5%), NXT (26.5%), Greens (1.0%) & Others (9.0%);
  • Mayo  L-NP (36%), ALP (21.5%), NXT (28.5%), Greens (7.0%) & Others (7.0%);
  • Sturt   L-NP (41%), ALP (20.5%), NXT (22%), Greens (10%) & Others (6.5%).

Voting intention in the 1 ALP held seat of Kingston.

Kingston ALP (35.5%), L-NP (30.5%), NXT (22.5%), Greens (6.0%) and others (5.5%).

Full voting intention results in all 11 South Australian seats can be seen in the tables below.

Overall South Australian Voting Intention (April – June 2016)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

44.5

27.8

31.0

-13.5

ALP

35.7

22.7

29.5

-6.2

NXT

0 (n/a)

24.9

21.5

+21.5

Greens

8.3

7.1

9.5

+1.2

Others

11.5

17.5

8.5

-3.0

TOTAL

100

100

100


As the Nick Xenephon Team (NXT) did not stand candidates in the lower house at the 2013 Federal Election the only comparison available is to the performance of the NXT in the 2013 Senate Election.


Comparison of NXT Senate performance (2013 Election) v Roy Morgan polling data (April - June 2016)

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

24.9

21.5

-3.4

INCREASES

Grey (L-NP)

18.0

26.5

+8.5

Barker (L-NP)

22.7

23.0

+0.5

Mayo (L-NP)

28.3

28.5

+0.2

DECREASES

Kingston (ALP)

25.9

22.5

-3.4

Wakefield (ALP)

23.2

19.0

-4.2

Makin (ALP)

25.7

21.0

-4.7

Hindmarsh (L-NP)

26.5

21.0

-5.5

Adelaide (ALP)

24.0

18.5

-5.5

Sturt (L-NP)

27.8

22.0

-5.8

Port Adelaide (ALP)

22.6

15.0

-7.6

Boothby(L-NP)

28.8

20.0

-8.8


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research says:

“Extensive analysis of Roy Morgan voting trends in South Australian seats over the past two months shows the Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) is likely to win two L-NP held seats – Grey & Mayo and certain to have a large impact on just who is elected in South Australia’s nine other seats.

“At the 2013 Federal Election six South Australian seats (five Liberal and one ALP) were won by a candidate securing a majority of the primary vote – none of these seats were forced to preferences to determine a winner. However, with the entry of NXT only Christopher Pyne (Liberal) in Sturt (41%) is now receiving more than 40% of the primary vote in any seat according to in-depth analysis of voting trends over the past two months (April – June 2016).

“Our analysis shows NXT are receiving a high share of the vote in the Liberal held seats of Mayo (L-NP 36.0% cf. NXT 28.5% cf. 21.5%), Grey (ALP – 32.5% cf. L-NP 31.0% cf. NXT 26.5%) and Barker (L-NP 37.0% cf. ALP 24.0% cf. NXT 23.0%) and are also performing weel in the ALP held seat of Kingston (ALP 35.5% cf. L-NP 30.5% cf. NXT 22.5%).

“Even if NXT is not able to secure wins in all these seats, the open ticket preference deals being recommended by NXT make it even harder to determine exactly how and in what proportions NXT preferences will flow to the major parties at the Election.”

Roy Morgan has analysed seat-by-seat data in all 11 South Australian seats over the past two months – April-June 2016 and today’s voting results are based on interviews with 1,951 South Australian electors between April 2/3, 2016 and June 11/12, 2016 which is approximately 180 electors per seat analysed.


L-NP held Seats:

Barker held by Tony Pasin (Liberal)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

57.0

37.1

37.0

-20.0

ALP

18.4

14.7

24.0

+5.6

NXT

0 (n/a)

22.7

23.0

+23.0

Greens

5.7

3.0

7.0

+1.3

Others

18.9

22.5

9.0

-9.9

TOTAL

100

100

100


Boothby (Liberal) – No sitting member

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

50.4

28.7

29.0

-21.4

ALP

30.8

19.2

31.0

+0.2

NXT

0 (n/a)

28.8

20.0

+20.0

Greens

12.0

10.1

12.5

+0.5

Others

6.8

13.2

7.5

+0.7

TOTAL

100

100

100


Grey held by Rowan Ramsay (Liberal)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

55.7

34.9

31.0

-24.7

ALP

27.3

21.3

32.5

+5.2

NXT

0 (n/a)

18.0

26.5

+26.5

Greens

3.7

2.7

1.0

-2.7

Others

13.3

23.1

9.0

-4.3

TOTAL

100

100

100


Hindmarsh held by Matt Williams (Liberal)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

46.2

29.2

35.0

-11.2

ALP

38.0

23.5

29.5

-8.5

NXT

0 (n/a)

26.5

21.0

+21.0

Greens

8.8

7.6

9.0

+0.2

Others

7.0

13.2

5.5

-1.5

TOTAL

100

100

100


Mayo held by Jamie Briggs (Liberal)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

53.8

30.7

36.0

-17.8

ALP

21.1

13.4

21.5

+0.4

NXT

0 (n/a)

28.3

28.5

+28.5

Greens

14.2

10.6

7.0

-7.2

Others

10.9

17.0

7.0

-3.9

TOTAL

100

100

100


Sturt held by Christopher Pyne (Liberal)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

54.4

32.2

41.0

-13.4

ALP

28.9

18.5

20.5

-8.4

NXT

0 (n/a)

27.8

22.0

+22.0

Greens

9.8

8.1

10.0

+0.2

Others

6.9

13.4

6.5

-0.4

TOTAL

100

100

100


ALP held Seats:

Adelaide held by Kate Ellis (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

42.1

28.8

27.5

-14.6

ALP

42.3

23.2

29.0

-13.3

NXT

0 (n/a)

24.0

18.5

+18.5

Greens

10.1

11.8

17.5

+7.4

Others

5.5

12.2

7.5

+2.0

TOTAL

100

100

100


Kingston held by Amanda Rishworth (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

32.4

19.7

30.5

-1.9

ALP

49.3

28.2

35.5

-13.8

NXT

0 (n/a)

25.9

22.5

+22.5

Greens

6.9

6.9

6.0

-0.9

Others

11.4

19.3

5.5

-5.9

TOTAL

100

100

100


Makin held by Tony Zappia (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

37.2

24.2

25.0

-12.2

ALP

45.6

25.5

30.0

-15.6

NXT

0 (n/a)

25.7

21.0

+21.0

Greens

5.9

5.4

12.5

+6.6

Others

11.3

19.1

11.5

+0.2

TOTAL

100

100

100


Port Adelaide held by Mark Butler (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

26.3

16.1

25.0

-1.3

ALP

50.6

34.9

35.5

-15.1

NXT

0 (n/a)

22.6

15.0

+15.0

Greens

8.6

6.7

12.0

+3.4

Others

14.5

19.7

12.5

-2.0

TOTAL

100

100

100


Wakefield held by Nick Champion (ALP)

2013 Federal
Election – House

2013 Federal Election – Senate

2016 Voting Intention
(April – June)

Change

%

%

%

%

L-NP

37.9

23.2

27.5

-10.4

ALP

41.5

27.1

34.0

-7.5

NXT

0 (n/a)

23.2

19.0

+19.0

Greens

5.2

4.7

5.5

+0.3

Others

15.4

21.8

14.0

-1.4

TOTAL

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093