Roy Morgan interviewed 6,283 Australian electors aged 18+ across the 20 electorates between January and June 11/12, 2016 – interviewing approximately 310 electors in each of the 20 seats. Full results in the twenty seats are available in the tables below.
Although a lot can happen between now and election day the Greens look set to grab two Inner Melbourne seats at next month’s Federal Election. After a disappointing 2013 Federal Election the Greens are standing candidates in all 150 Lower House seats.
Roy Morgan’s 2016 seat-by-seat analysis of the Green’s 20 best performing electorates at the 2013 Federal Election shows the Greens will win the Inner Melbourne electorate of Batman from the incumbent David Feeney (ALP) and the Greens one sitting Member, Adam Bandt, will retain his seat of Melbourne.
Roy Morgan interviewed 6,283 Australian electors aged 18+ across the 20 electorates between January and June 11/12, 2016 – interviewing approximately 310 electors in each of the 20 seats. Full results in the twenty seats are available in the tables below.
Roy Morgan polling shows that no Liberal seats are in danger of being won by the Greens.
Of the doubtful Labor seats it appears the Victorian seat of Wills has been saved following the ALP’s preference swapping deal with the Liberal Party. In a seat being targeted by the Greens – the electorate of Grayndler in Sydney held by Labor’s Anthony Albanese, voting is similar to the 2013 election. His primary vote was in the high 40s in 2013 and the Greens were outpolled by the Liberals. Albanese is likely to retain his seat.
In Melbourne Ports in 2013, Labor’s Michael Danby was out voted by the Liberals but retained the seat because of Greens preferences. A switch in primary votes between Labor and the Greens could see the seat fall to the Greens although the ALP (33%) retains a significant primary vote lead over the Greens (26%) in Melbourne Ports.
Voting intention:
Top 10 Greens seats: Melbourne (VIC), Batman (VIC), Wills (VIC), Gellibrand (VIC), Richmond (NSW), Melbourne Ports (VIC), Sydney (NSW), Fraser (ACT), Grayndler (NSW), Fremantle (WA).
- Melbourne (VIC): Greens (40.5%); ALP (34.5%); L-NP (18.5%); Others (6.5%). Greens held;
- Batman (VIC): Greens (40%); ALP (34.5%); L-NP (17%); Others (8.5%). ALP held;
- Wills (VIC): ALP (34.5%); Greens (34.5%); L-NP (22%); Others (9%). ALP held;
- Gellibrand (VIC): ALP (40.5%); Greens (30%); L-NP (22.5%); Others (7%). ALP held;
- Richmond (NSW): ALP (31.0%); L-NP (28.5%); Greens (27%); Others (13.5%). ALP held;
- Melbourne Ports (VIC): ALP (33%); L-NP (31%); Greens (26%); Others (10%). ALP held;
- Sydney (NSW): ALP (40%); L-NP (26.5%); Greens (24.5%); Others (9%). ALP held;
- Fraser (ACT): ALP (33.5%); L-NP (32.5%); Greens (24.5%); Others (9.5%). ALP held;
- Grayndler (NSW): ALP (39.5%); L-NP (24.5%); Greens (24%); Others (12%). ALP held;
- Fremantle (WA): L-NP (38%); ALP (37%); Greens (22%); Others (3%). ALP held.
NSW Seats
Grayndler – held by Anthony Albanese (ALP)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
24.7
|
19.0
|
24.5
|
-0.2
|
|
ALP
|
47.2
|
37.5
|
39.5
|
-7.7
|
|
Greens
|
23.0
|
23.9
|
24.0
|
+1.0
|
|
Others
|
5.1
|
19.6
|
12.0
|
+6.9
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Sydney – held by Tanya Plibersek (ALP)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
30.5
|
22.8
|
26.5
|
-4.0
|
|
ALP
|
46.0
|
33.1
|
40.0
|
-6.0
|
|
Greens
|
17.3
|
23.6
|
24.5
|
+7.2
|
|
Others
|
6.2
|
20.5
|
9.0
|
+2.8
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Richmond – held by Justine Elliot (ALP)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
37.6
|
30.1
|
28.5
|
-9.1
|
|
ALP
|
33.5
|
28.8
|
31.0
|
-2.5
|
|
Greens
|
17.7
|
16.7
|
27.0
|
+9.3
|
|
Others
|
11.2
|
24.4
|
13.5
|
+2.3
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
North Sydney – held by Trent Zimmerman (Liberal)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
61.0
|
48.2
|
45.3
|
57.5
|
-3.5
|
|
ALP
|
20.0
|
-
|
20.5
|
21.5
|
+1.5
|
|
Greens
|
15.4
|
15.7
|
14.6
|
12.5
|
-2.9
|
|
Others
|
3.6
|
36.1
|
19.6
|
8.5
|
+4.9
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Warringah – held by Tony Abbott (Liberal)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
60.9
|
46.7
|
53.0
|
-7.9
|
|
ALP
|
19.3
|
17.3
|
22.0
|
+2.7
|
|
Greens
|
15.5
|
14.6
|
15.5
|
0.0
|
|
Others
|
4.3
|
21.4
|
9.5
|
+5.2
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Wentworth – held by Malcolm Turnbull (Liberal)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
63.3
|
42.1
|
41.5
|
-21.8
|
|
ALP
|
19.4
|
20.1
|
27.5
|
+8.1
|
|
Greens
|
14.6
|
17.5
|
22.0
|
+7.4
|
|
Others
|
2.7
|
20.3
|
9.0
|
+6.3
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Victorian Seats
Melbourne – held by Adam Bandt (Greens)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
22.8
|
24.9
|
18.5
|
-4.3
|
|
ALP
|
26.6
|
29.4
|
34.5
|
+7.9
|
|
Greens
|
42.6
|
34.4
|
40.5
|
-2.1
|
|
Others
|
8.0
|
11.3
|
6.5
|
-1.5
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Batman – held by David Feeney (ALP)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
22.5
|
22.3
|
17.0
|
-5.5
|
|
ALP
|
41.3
|
39.2
|
34.5
|
-6.8
|
|
Greens
|
26.4
|
24.4
|
40.0
|
+13.6
|
|
Others
|
9.8
|
14.1
|
8.5
|
-1.3
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Gellibrand – held by Tim Watts (ALP)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
26.7
|
25.4
|
22.5
|
-4.2
|
|
ALP
|
46.0
|
42.0
|
40.5
|
-5.5
|
|
Greens
|
16.7
|
16.3
|
30.0
|
+13.3
|
|
Others
|
10.6
|
16.3
|
7.0
|
-3.6
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Melbourne Ports – held by Michael Danby (ALP)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
41.1
|
41.7
|
31.0
|
-10.1
|
|
ALP
|
31.7
|
25.9
|
33.0
|
+1.3
|
|
Greens
|
20.2
|
20.8
|
26.0
|
+5.8
|
|
Others
|
7.0
|
11.6
|
10.0
|
+3.0
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Wills (ALP) – No sitting member
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
22.8
|
23.9
|
22.0
|
-0.8
|
|
ALP
|
45.1
|
38.8
|
34.5
|
-10.6
|
|
Greens
|
22.2
|
22.0
|
34.5
|
+12.3
|
|
Others
|
9.9
|
15.3
|
9.0
|
-0.9
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Higgins – held by Kelly O’Dwyer (Liberal)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
54.4
|
49.8
|
51.5
|
-2.9
|
|
ALP
|
24.1
|
21.8
|
19.5
|
-4.6
|
|
Greens
|
16.8
|
17.1
|
21.0
|
+4.2
|
|
Others
|
4.7
|
11.3
|
8.0
|
+3.3
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Kooyong – held by Josh Frydenberg (Liberal)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
55.7
|
51.2
|
55.5
|
-0.2
|
|
ALP
|
22.4
|
20.6
|
19.0
|
-3.4
|
|
Greens
|
16.6
|
17.1
|
14.0
|
-2.6
|
|
Others
|
5.3
|
11.1
|
11.5
|
+6.2
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Queensland Seats
Brisbane (LNP) – No sitting member
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
48.0
|
44.6
|
44.5
|
-3.5
|
|
ALP
|
30.1
|
26.5
|
21.0
|
-9.1
|
|
Greens
|
14.3
|
14.9
|
17.5
|
+3.2
|
|
Others
|
7.6
|
14.0
|
17.0
|
+9.4
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Ryan – held by Jane Prentice (LNP)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
51.7
|
47.3
|
44.5
|
-7.2
|
|
ALP
|
25.5
|
23.6
|
27.5
|
+2.0
|
|
Greens
|
14.4
|
14.0
|
19.0
|
+4.6
|
|
Others
|
8.4
|
15.1
|
9.0
|
+0.6
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
West Australian Seats
Curtin – held by Julie Bishop (Liberal)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
62.1
|
56.1
|
49.0
|
-13.1
|
|
ALP
|
17.9
|
15.8
|
22.0
|
+4.1
|
|
Greens
|
15.3
|
15.7
|
18.0
|
+2.7
|
|
Others
|
4.7
|
12.4
|
11.0
|
+6.3
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Fremantle (ALP) – No sitting member
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
38.1
|
35.5
|
38.0
|
-0.1
|
|
ALP
|
40.8
|
32.8
|
37.0
|
-3.8
|
|
Greens
|
11.9
|
14.3
|
22.0
|
+10.1
|
|
Others
|
9.2
|
17.4
|
3.0
|
-6.2
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
ACT Seats
Canberra – held by Gai Brodtmann (ALP)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
37.9
|
35.5
|
37.5
|
-0.4
|
|
ALP
|
41.1
|
33.6
|
35.0
|
-6.1
|
|
Greens
|
12.7
|
17.4
|
16.5
|
+3.8
|
|
Others
|
8.3
|
13.5
|
11.0
|
+2.7
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Fraser – held by Andrew Leigh (ALP)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
31.6
|
30.1
|
32.5
|
+0.9
|
|
ALP
|
44.7
|
35.2
|
33.5
|
-11.2
|
|
Greens
|
14.1
|
21.0
|
24.5
|
+10.4
|
|
Others
|
9.6
|
13.7
|
9.5
|
-0.1
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Tasmanian Seat
Franklin – held by Julie Collins (ALP)
|
|
2013 Federal
Election – House
|
2013 Federal Election – Senate
|
2016 Voting Intention
|
Change
|
|
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
L-NP
|
38.7
|
36.2
|
38.5
|
-0.2
|
|
ALP
|
39.9
|
34.0
|
33.0
|
-6.9
|
|
Greens
|
12.2
|
14.5
|
14.5
|
+2.3
|
|
Others
|
9.2
|
15.3
|
14.0
|
+4.8
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
For further information:
|
Contact
|
Office
|
Mobile
|
|
Gary Morgan:
|
+61 3 9224 5213
|
+61 411 129 094
|
|
Michele Levine:
|
+61 3 9224 5215
|
+61 411 129 093
|