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Turnbull leads Shorten as ‘Better PM’; but no way back for former PM Tony Abbott

This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted today July 5, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross section of 3,587 electors with about a third of electors being asked each question.

With the election outcome still uncertain 51% of Australians prefer Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as ‘Better Prime Minister’ ahead of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 47%. This is a small decrease for Turnbull (down 6% from 57% in May), and a big increase for Shorten (up 23%) according to a special Snap SMS Morgan Poll conducted today following last Saturday’s Federal Election.

Preferred Prime Minister

Analysis by Gender

Men: Turnbull 52% (down 5%) cf. Shorten 45% (up 19%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 7% (down 24%);

Women: Turnbull 49% (down 9%) cf. Shorten 50% (up 28%). Lead to Mr. Shorten 1% (down 37 %).

Analysis by Party – Turnbull leads among L-NP electors and Shorten well ahead with ALP electors

L-NP supporters: Turnbull 86% (down 4%) cf. Shorten 12% (up 10%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 74% (down 14%);

ALP supporters: Turnbull 18% (down 13%) cf. Shorten 81% (up 35%). Lead to Mr. Shorten 63% (up 48%);

Greens supporters: Turnbull 15% (down 21%) cf. Shorten 83% (up 33%). Lead to Mr. Shorten 68% (up 54%);

Ind/Others supporters: Turnbull 41% (down 8%) cf. Shorten 50% (up 27%). Lead to Mr. Shorten 9% (up 35%).

Better Liberal Leader: Turnbull v Abbott

However, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull 71% is clearly preferred to former PM Tony Abbott 25% as the Better Liberal Leader. Turnbull (60%) is also clearly preferred to Abbott (38%) by L-NP supporters.

Better ALP Leader: Shorten v Albanese

In contrast, Shadow Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese 49% is narrowly preferred to Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 48% as the Better ALP Leader. But, ALP supporters clearly prefer Shorten (64%) to Albanese (35%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s special snap SMS Morgan Poll shows 51% of Australians would prefer Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister narrowly ahead of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (47%) following the weekend’s Federal Election which left the country evenly divided.

“Turnbull (71%) also enjoys overwhelming support as the ‘Better Liberal Leader’ over former Prime Minister Tony Abbott (25%) – and is also clearly preferred by L-NP supporters: Turnbull (60%) cf. Abbott (38%) – it appears there is no going back to the former Prime Minister.

“Although Shorten is widely considered to have had a successful election campaign, electors are almost evenly split between Shadow Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (49%) and Shorten (48%). The good news for Shorten is that ALP supporters clearly prefer Shorten to continue as ALP Leader: Shorten (64%) cf. Albanese (35%).”

This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted today July 5, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross section of 3,587 electors with about a third of electors being asked each question.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).


Better Prime Minister: Turnbull v Shorten

A total of 1,333 electors were asked: “Thinking of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Turnbull or Mr. Shorten?”

Prime Minister Tony Abbott
v  Bill Shorten

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull
v Bill Shorten

Oct
2014

Jan
2015

Apr
2015

July 20-22,
2015

Sep 15,
2015
*

Oct 20-22,
2015

May 4-5,
2016

July 5,
2016*

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Prime Minister

Abbott/ Turnbull

44

41

44

42

70

76

57

51

Shorten

37

43

39

41

24

14

24

47

Abbott/ Turnbull lead

7

(2)

5

1

46

62

33

4

Neither / Can’t say

19

16

17

17

6

10

19

2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100










*The first special Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted on Tuesday September 15, 2015 – the day Malcolm Turnbull was sworn in as Australia’s 29th Prime Minister replacing former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, while today’s Morgan Poll was also a special Snap SMS Morgan Poll.

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

July 5,
2016

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

51

52

49

48

42

47

56

57

Shorten

47

   45

50

52

54

52

43

40

Turnbull lead

4

7

(1)

(4)

(12)

(5)

13

17

Neither/ Can’t say

2

3

1

0

4

1

1

3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

July 5,
2016

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/Others

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

51

86

18

15

48

Shorten

47

12

81

83

50

Turnbull lead

4

74

(63)

(68)

(2)

Neither/ Can’t say

2

2

1

2

2

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100


Better Liberal Leader: Malcolm Turnbull v Tony Abbott

A total of 1,193 electors were asked: “Thinking of Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott. In your opinion, who would make the better Liberal Leader – Mr. Turnbull or Mr. Abbott?”

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

July 5,
2016

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

71

68

73

85

79

70

69

61

Abbott

25

28

22

12

19

27

27

32

Turnbull lead

46

40

51

73

60

43

42

29

Neither/ Can’t say

4

4

5

3

2

3

4

7

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

July 5,
2016

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/Others

%

%

%

%

%

Turnbull

71

60

81

93

68

Abbott

25

38

15

4

29

Turnbull lead

46

22

66

89

39

Neither/ Can’t say

4

2

4

3

3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100


Better ALP Leader: Bill Shorten v Anthony Albanese

A total of 1,061 electors were asked: “Thinking of Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese. In your opinion, who would make the better ALP Leader – Mr. Shorten or Mr. Albanese?”

Electors 18+

Analysis by Sex & Age

July 5,
2016

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Shorten

48

46

50

62

53

48

47

37

Albanese

49

51

48

37

47

48

49

58

Shorten lead

(1)

(5)

2

25

6

0

(2)

(21)

Neither/ Can’t say

3

3

2

1

0

4

4

5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Electors 18+

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

July 5,
2016

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Ind/Others

%

%

%

%

%

Shorten

48

25

64

56

54

Albanese

49

68

35

44

43

Shorten lead

(1)

(43)

29

12

11

Neither/ Can’t say

3

7

1

0

3

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100


For further information:

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Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093