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The ups and downs of holiday intention

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), July 2006-June 2016, average quarterly sample = 4,742. Base: Australians 14+

While the proportion of Australians planning to take a holiday in the next 12 months is unchanged from the same time last year, it is lower than it was last quarter. The latest findings from the Roy Morgan Holiday Tracking Survey for the June 2016 quarter reveal that this slight downturn is evident among Australians planning a domestic holiday as well as those planning to travel overseas.

Presently, 70% of Australians 14+ (or 14.1 million people) are intending to take some kind of holiday in the next 12 months, down from 72% in the March 2016 quarter. The proportion of the population planning a domestic holiday has fallen from 57% to 56% in the same period, while overseas intention fell from 11% to 10% between the March and June quarters.

Australians intending to take a holiday in the next 12 months

holiday-intention-chart

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia), July 2006-June 2016, average quarterly sample = 4,742. Base: Australians 14+

The chart above shows how the trends for overall and domestic holiday intention follow a similar trajectory. This is hardly surprising, given that the vast bulk of Aussies planning a trip in the next 12 months are intending to stick to home soil. It certainly forms an interesting contrast to overseas intention, which is not nearly as changeable.

Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Holiday intention has slipped since the beginning of the year, but remains just above the quarterly average for the past decade (69%). As mentioned, domestic and overseas holiday intention have both fallen slightly. The decline in overseas intention is likely a reaction to several terrorist incidents since November last year, occurring in destinations popular with Australian travellers, such as France, Belgium, Turkey, the USA and India.

“As we revealed in April, terrorism has taken its toll on Australian tourism to Bali over the years, so it follows that the spate of attacks since November would have an adverse impact too. However, if the pattern for Bali is any indication, intention usually bounces back within a few months.

“While the current decline in overseas holiday intention is evident among most age groups, it has actually risen slightly since the March quarter among 25-34 year-olds (11% to 14%) and the 65+ age bracket (9% to 10%).

“The former group also bucked the downward trend in domestic intention, with 61% planning to holiday in Australia in the next 12 months (up from 58%). In contrast, domestic intention among the 65+ age bracket fell from 47% to 44% between the March and June quarters, the most substantial decrease of all age groups.

“Tourism operators and destination marketers wishing to identify which Australians are most (and least) likely to be planning a holiday to their region would benefit from the deep, holistic data contained in Roy Morgan’s Holiday Tracking Survey. While influences like terrorism will always be out of their control, a detailed knowledge of their target market’s attitudes, media consumption habits, demographics and leisure activities will at least allow them to be more strategic in the way they communicate with their desired audience.”


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About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices throughout Australia, as well as in Indonesia, the United States and the United Kingdom. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan has over 70 years’ experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.0

±2.7

±1.9

±1.3

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

7,500

±1.1

±1.0

±0.7

±0.5

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2