This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,030 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend September 10/11, 2016.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence bounced back this week, rising a solid 3.3% to 118.1. The four-week moving average ticked up to 118.2, the highest level since late 2013. The Q2 GDP report last week, which highlighted the underlying strength of the Australian economy, was likely behind part of the rise in consumers’ optimism.
- The bounce in confidence was largely driven by households’ views of the economic outlook. Households’ views of the 12 month economic outlook jumped 8.1%, while views of the five year economic outlook rose a solid 4.6%. These series have been quite volatile over the past few weeks, but overall they both remain on an upward trend.
- Consumers’ views towards their own finances have been rising at solid rates since the beginning of 2016. Views of their current finances rose 1.6% – with the four-week moving average reaching a new post-GFC high – while views of future finances ticked down 0.3%.
- Household views on whether ‘now is a good time to buy a household item’ rose 3.9%, entirely offsetting last week’s decline.
ANZ Head of Australian Economy Felicity Emmett commented:
“Looking through the weekly volatility, Australian households remain optimistic about their finances and more confident about the economy, especially in the near term. Last week’s read on confidence looks to have been boosted by the Q2 GDP report, which showed solid economic growth for the quarter and a twenty five year run of uninterrupted growth. More broadly, the report showed that the recovery in non-mining activity continues to gain traction, with housing being a key driver of growth.
"Disappointingly though, the GDP report showed that rising household confidence did not translate into stronger consumer spending in Q2. Consumption has been a key driver of the non-mining recovery and this step down in growth is somewhat concerning, and something we will be closely watching over the next few months.
"The strength in the labour market remains a key driver of sentiment. On this front, this week’s employment data will be important for the near term direction of consumer confidence.”
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:
"This week’s rise in the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index, up 3.8pts to 118.1, comes after a strong Australian GDP result last week which showed the Australian economy growing at an annual rate in the year to June of 3.3%. This is the fastest annual GDP growth for the Australian economy for four years since 2012.
“Although this week’s increase in Consumer Confidence might seem to contradict the fall in the Roy Morgan Business Confidence – down 7.5pts to 108.6 in August, released yesterday, the two indicators are measured over a different time period (the month of August compared to the weekend just past) and have therefore been impacted by different socio-economic drivers.
“For instance, the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates in August to a record low of 1.5% indicated persistent worries about the weakness of the Australian economy and in addition August Business Confidence was clearly impacted by the uncertainty created by the close Federal Election. Both of these worries have begun to dissipate in recent weeks highlighted by the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates on hold last week and the faster than expected Australian GDP growth.”
Click here to view the PDF of the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
The week that was September 5-11, 2016