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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence - Coming up Trumps, up 1.9pts to 122.9

Consumers have cast their vote: sentiment lifted again in October to its highest level since mid-2015. People are feeling more confident about the future, particularly for the broader economy, while opinions on the right-here-and-now eased a touch. House price expectations eased off last month’s highs.
SUMMARY

  • Consumers have cast their vote: sentiment lifted again in October to its highest level since mid-2015.

  • People are feeling more confident about the future, particularly for the broader economy, while opinions on the right-here-and-now eased a touch.

  • House price expectations eased off last month’s highs.

This month’s survey suggests consumers are united in a state of solid confidence. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index increased from 121.0 to 122.9. Our seasonally adjusted estimate also rose a point from 125 to 126, its fifth consecutive increase and the highest reading since late 2014. There is little debate: people are feeling pretty good.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence - October 2016 - 122.9

Respondents are not feeling conservative about the future. The Current Conditions Index was little changed (easing from 124.1 to 122.7), while the Future Conditions Index rose from 119.0 to 123.1.

  • A swing in the forward-looking indicators held the balance of power. Net optimism regarding the short-term economic outlook leapt from +12 to +21 – the highest since mid-2015. Confidence regarding the long-term economic outlook increased from +14 to +18. It’s worth noting confidence does have a public and private face: a net 30% expect to be better off financially in 12 months’ time, down a point from September. This is a strong majority but is essentially unchanged from the start of the year. Confidence in the broader economy has lifted from +6 to +21.

  • Concurrent spending indicators still have solid support. A net 11% feel better off compared to a year ago, again unchanged on last month’s reading. Consumers’ enthusiasm to buy a major household item remains strong, at a net 35%. Worry about the Bill later.

The New Zealand economy continues to make short work of Hills and this is reflected in rising consumer confidence. GDP growth is accelerating, and the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1% as good candidates become harder to find. House prices remain a strong platform for home-owners and dairy prices have crossed the floor. No wonder consumers are electing to be liberal with their spending.

Our confidence composite gauge (which combines business and consumer sentiment) continues to flag a solid-to-strong pace of GDP growth over the rest of the year, heading towards 4 percent. A move that big may fail but the availability of resources appears set to turn-out to be more of a problem for firms than a lack of demand. We expect wage growth to start to move higher soon, which would be another positive for consumers.

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating - October 2016 - 122.9

Click here to download the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Release PDF - October 2016.


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Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

You can also view our monitor of Quarterly New Zealand Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.