This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the three nights last week of October 24-26, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross section of 552 electors.
- Foreign Minister Julie Bishop preferred as Coalition leader by 34% of electors (up 10% since May 4-5, 2016) has overtaken Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull 25% (down 16%) for the first time and both Julie Bishop and Malcolm Turnbull are well ahead of former Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s 14% (up 7%) – although this is easily the highest level of support for Abbott since he lost the Prime Ministership just over a year ago in September 2015.
- However, despite the loss of support for Turnbull, L-NP voters easily prefer Turnbull as Coalition Leader 35% (but down a large 21%), ahead of Deputy Leader Julie Bishop 25% (up 8%), former Prime Minister Tony Abbott 16% (up 6%), and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce 10% (up 5%).
- Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek 25% (up 3%) of electors is still the marginally preferred Labor Leader, slightly ahead of Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese 24% (up 4%) and both are well ahead of current Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 14% (unchanged).
- However, ALP supporters are still loyal to the current Leader with Bill Shorten 29% (up a large 11%) now preferred just ahead of Tanya Plibersek 28% (up 5%) and well ahead of Anthony Albanese 21% (up 3%).
- If Mr Turnbull were to resign as Prime Minister tomorrow, a clear plurality of electors prefer Julie Bishop as Prime Minister 50% (up 8%) well ahead of Tony Abbott 16% (up 5%). L-NP supporters agree with a clear preference for Bishop 45% (up 4%) ahead of Tony Abbott 19% (up 2%).
- If Labor Leader Bill Shorten were to resign for any reason, Tanya Plibersek 30% (up 5%) is preferred as ALP Leader just ahead of Anthony Albanese 27% (up 4%). Their support amongst ALP voters also favours Plibersek 37% (up 10%) clearly ahead of Albanese 28% (up 6%).
Gary Morgan says:
“Foreign Minister and Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop is the preferred Coalition Leader 34% (up 10% since May 2016) ahead of both current Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull 25% (down 16%) and even further ahead of former Prime Minister Tony Abbott 14% (up 7%).
“Australian electors have a similar opinion of the ALP leadership – preferring Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek is preferred leader by 25% (up 3%), just ahead of Anthony Albanese with 24% (up 4%) and incumbent Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 14% (unchanged). Plibersek has now been the preferred ALP Leader the last four times the Morgan Poll has asked this question.
“The leads for Bishop and Plibersek come two weeks before Americans vote in a historic Presidential Election between Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican opponent Donald Trump. Clinton is the first woman to stand as a major party candidate for the Presidency and is heavily favoured to be elected as the first female President of the United States on November 8.”
This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the three nights last week of October 24-26, 2016 with an Australia-wide cross section of 552 electors.
Preferred Coalition Leader
Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”
| |
Tony Abbott
as PM
|
Malcolm Turnbull
as Prime Minister
|
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
|
| |
July 20-22,
2015
|
Oct 20-22,
2015
|
May 4-5,
2016
|
Oct 24-26,
2016
|
L-NP
|
ALP
|
Greens
|
One
Nation#
|
Ind/
Other
|
| |
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Bishop
|
15
|
12
|
24
|
34
|
25
|
42
|
43
|
23
|
39
|
|
Turnbull
|
44
|
64
|
41
|
25
|
35
|
21
|
26
|
5
|
20
|
|
Abbott
|
13
|
8
|
7
|
14
|
16
|
12
|
2
|
48
|
13
|
|
Joyce
|
5
|
3
|
6
|
6
|
10
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
8
|
|
Morrison
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
3
|
4
|
1
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
|
Pyne
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
|
Robb
|
*
|
0
|
2
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Hockey
|
5
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Someone else
|
1
|
*
|
1
|
1
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
4
|
-
|
|
Can’t say
|
11
|
8
|
12
|
15
|
8
|
20
|
21
|
7
|
12
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%. Former Treasurer Joe Hockey was removed from this question following his decision to resign from his seat in Parliament made after he left the front-bench and Andrew Robb was removed from this question after resigning from Parliament at the 2016 Federal Election. #Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.
Preferred Coalition Leader other than Malcolm Turnbull
Electors who preferred Malcolm Turnbull were then asked:
“Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Julie Bishop, Scott Morrison, Tony Abbott, Christopher Pyne and Barnaby Joyce?”
The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Malcolm Turnbull.
| |
Tony Abbott
as PM
|
Malcolm Turnbull
as Prime Minister
|
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
|
| |
July 20-22,
2015
|
Oct 20-22,
2015
|
May 4-5,
2016
|
Oct 24-26,
2016
|
L-NP
|
ALP
|
Greens
|
One
Nation#
|
Ind/
Other
|
| |
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Turnbull
|
47
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Bishop
|
19
|
46
|
42
|
50
|
45
|
57
|
65
|
27
|
52
|
|
Abbott
|
n/a
|
10
|
11
|
16
|
19
|
13
|
2
|
48
|
14
|
|
Joyce
|
7
|
7
|
9
|
7
|
11
|
2
|
5
|
7
|
10
|
|
Morrison
|
8
|
15
|
12
|
6
|
9
|
2
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
|
Pyne
|
2
|
4
|
5
|
3
|
5
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
|
Robb
|
*
|
2
|
3
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Hockey
|
6
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
n/a
|
|
Someone else
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
-
|
1
|
-
|
4
|
-
|
|
Can’t say
|
10
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
11
|
23
|
24
|
7
|
16
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%. Former Treasurer Joe Hockey was removed from this question following his decision to resign from his seat in Parliament made after he left the front-bench and Andrew Robb was removed from this question after resigning from Parliament at the 2016 Federal Election. #Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.
Preferred Labor Leader
Electors were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”
| |
PM Tony
Abbott
|
Prime Minister
Malcolm Turnbull
|
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
|
| |
July 20-22,
2015
|
Oct 20-22,
2015
|
May 4-5,
2016
|
Oct 24-26,
2016
|
L-NP
|
ALP
|
Greens
|
One
Nation#
|
Ind/
Other
|
| |
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Plibersek
|
26
|
27
|
22
|
25
|
21
|
28
|
41
|
12
|
24
|
|
Albanese
|
19
|
23
|
20
|
24
|
30
|
21
|
25
|
15
|
27
|
|
Shorten
|
12
|
9
|
14
|
14
|
9
|
29
|
7
|
10
|
5
|
|
Swan
|
10
|
10
|
8
|
5
|
7
|
4
|
-
|
3
|
5
|
|
Burke
|
4
|
5
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
-
|
3
|
13
|
1
|
|
Macklin
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|
Bowen
|
7
|
5
|
8
|
2
|
4
|
*
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|
Someone else
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
16
|
3
|
|
Can’t say
|
16
|
15
|
21
|
22
|
19
|
13
|
18
|
25
|
27
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.
Preferred Labor Leader other than Bill Shorten
Electors who preferred Bill Shorten as ALP Leader were then asked:
“Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Anthony Albanese, Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin, Chris Bowen, Tanya Plibersek or Tony Burke?”
The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Bill Shorten.
| |
PM Tony
Abbott
|
Prime Minister
Malcolm Turnbull
|
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
|
|
|
July 20-22,
2015
|
Oct 20-22,
2015
|
May 4-5,
2016
|
Oct 24-26,
2016
|
L-NP
|
ALP
|
Greens
|
One
Nation#
|
Ind/
Other
|
| |
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
Plibersek
|
29
|
28
|
25
|
30
|
25
|
37
|
47
|
14
|
26
|
|
Albanese
|
21
|
24
|
23
|
27
|
31
|
28
|
25
|
22
|
27
|
|
Swan
|
12
|
11
|
9
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
-
|
3
|
6
|
|
Burke
|
5
|
6
|
4
|
4
|
6
|
1
|
3
|
13
|
1
|
|
Macklin
|
4
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
5
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
|
Bowen
|
7
|
6
|
10
|
3
|
5
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
|
Someone else
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
16
|
3
|
|
Can’t say
|
20
|
18
|
24
|
24
|
22
|
20
|
18
|
26
|
29
|
|
TOTAL
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.
For further information:
|
Contact
|
Office
|
Mobile
|
|
Gary Morgan:
|
+61 3 9224 5213
|
+61 411 129 094
|
|
Michele Levine:
|
+61 3 9224 5215
|
+61 411 129 093
|
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size
|
Percentage Estimate
|
|
40%-60%
|
25% or 75%
|
10% or 90%
|
5% or 95%
|
|
500
|
±4.3
|
±3.8
|
±2.6
|
±1.9
|
|
1,000
|
±3.2
|
±2.7
|
±1.9
|
±1.4
|
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.