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A majority of Australians don’t see the wider economic benefits of lowering company tax rates while more Australians want social welfare payments increased rather than reduced

Finding No. 7161 – This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,518 Australians over the weekend, Friday February 17 – Sunday February 19, 2017. *This research was not paid for by the ABC.

A special snap SMS Morgan Poll last weekend shows a majority of Australians (61%) do not believe lowering company tax rates would bring wider economic benefits to the community compared to 39% of Australians who believe it would.

Respondents were then asked for their view on social welfare payments: 35% of Australians believe they should be increased, 28% reduced while 37% said they should remain about the same. This special SMS Morgan Poll was conducted over last weekend (February 17-19, 2017) with a cross-section of 1,266 Australians aged 18+.

Respondents were asked: “Do you believe lower company tax rates would bring wider economic benefits to the community or not?” and those who responded were then asked: “Do you believe Federal Government spending on social welfare payments should be reduced, increased, or stay about the same?”

Question 1: Company Tax Rates

Analysis by Voting Preference (Electors)

  • L-NP voters: Yes (62%) cf. no (38%);
  • ALP voters: Yes (22%) cf. no (78%);
  • Greens voters: Yes (5%) cf. no (95%);
  • Independent/ Others voters: Yes (35%) cf. no (65%);
  • Can’t say: Yes (51%) cf. no (49%).

Analysis by Gender

  • Women: Yes (37%) cf. no (63%);
  • Men: Yes (42%) cf. no (58%).

Analysis by Age

  • 18-24yr olds: Yes (27%) cf. no (73%);
  • 25-34yr olds: Yes (30%) cf. no (70%);
  • 35-49yr olds: Yes (39%) cf. no (61%);
  • 50-64yr olds: Yes (44%) cf. no (56%);
  • 65+yr olds: Yes (50%) cf. no (50%).

Analysis by State

  • New South Wales: Yes (39%) cf. no (61%);
  • Victoria: Yes (32%) cf. no (68%);
  • Queensland: Yes (44%) cf. no (56%);
  • Western Australia: Yes (48%) cf. no (52%);
  • South Australia: Yes (42%) cf. no (58%);
  • Tasmania: Yes (42%) cf. no (58%).

Question 2: Social Welfare Payments

Analysis by Voting Preference (Electors)

  • L-NP voters: Reduced (43%); Increased (19%); Stay same (38%);
  • ALP voters: Reduced (15%); Increased (43%); Stay same (42%);
  • Greens voters: Reduced (3%); Increased (70%); Stay same (27%);
  • Independent/ Others voters: Reduced (27%); Increased (45%) Stay same (28%);
  • Can’t say: Reduced (18%); Increased (52%); Stay same (30%);

Analysis by Gender

  • Women: Reduced (24%); Increased (42%); Stay same (34%);
  • Men: Reduced (32%); Increased (29%); Stay same (39%);

Analysis by Age

  • 18-24yr olds: Reduced (25%); Increased (42%); Stay same (33%);
  • 25-34yr olds: Reduced (13%); Increased (35%); Stay same (52%);
  • 35-49yr olds: Reduced (27%); Increased (40%); Stay same (33%);
  • 50-64yr olds: Reduced (36%); Increased (33%); Stay same (31%);
  • 65+yr olds: Reduced (35%); Increased (27%); Stay same (38%);

Analysis by State

  • New South Wales: Reduced (27%); Increased (33%); Stay same (40%);
  • Victoria: Reduced (23%); Increased (46%); Stay same (31%);
  • Queensland: Reduced (36%); Increased (29%); Stay same (35%);
  • Western Australia: Reduced (36%); Increased (24%); Stay same (40%);
  • South Australia: Reduced (16%); Increased (40%); Stay same (44%);
  • Tasmania: Reduced (31%); Increased (34%); Stay same (35%);


Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“A special SMS Morgan Poll shows a clear majority of Australians (61%) don’t believe lowering company tax rates will bring wider economic benefits to Australia while only 39% believe it will, suggesting the Turnbull Government’s key policy of cutting company tax rates is failing to ‘cut through’ and win widespread community support.

“However, the policy does appeal to the Government’s core supporters – 62% of L-NP supporters believe cutting company tax rates will bring wider economic benefits while large majorities of ALP supporters (78%) and almost all Greens supporters (95%) don’t see any wider economic benefits from cutting company taxation.

“Rather than focusing on a policy that doesn’t have cross-over appeal to voters, the Government would be well advised to keep an eye on several key economic indicators provided by Roy Morgan that assess the confidence of Australian businesses and consumers on an ongoing basis.

“The good news for the Turnbull Government is that the key indicators of ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence (113.7 on February 18/19, 2017) and Roy Morgan Business Confidence (116.8 in January 2017) are both tracking along well, slightly above long-term averages.

“Above average business confidence means businesses will spend money investing in new equipment and innovating new ideas and improvements to the way they do business and hiring additional employees, and above average consumer confidence means consumers will continue spending to drive economic growth from the demand side.

“However, a concern for policymakers should be the continuing high level of real unemployment and under-employment in the Australian economy. The latest Roy Morgan January employment estimates show 1.295 million Australians (9.7%) are out of work and looking for a job while a further 1.107 million (8.2%) are under-employed – employed for a few hours a week or part-time and looking for more hours or a full-time job.

“A high level of unemployment and under-employment throughout the society is a double-edged sword for the economy with lower productivity because of reduced activity and demand on the one side lowering tax receipts for Government, and on the other side, increased welfare payouts to the unemployed increases Government spending. High and rising unemployment is a recipe for larger and larger Government deficits and debt.

“Social welfare payments are another policy area that has clear differences between the major parties and these differences are borne out by the results of today’s survey. A huge majority of ALP supporters (85%) believe social welfare payments should either be increased (43%) or stay about the same (42%) and only 15% think they should be reduced while nearly half of L-NP supporters (43%) believe social welfare payments should be reduced and only 19% say they should be increased and a further 38% say about the same.”

Finding No. 7161 – This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,518 Australians over the weekend, Friday February 17 – Sunday February 19, 2017. *This research was not paid for by the ABC. Respondents were asked: “Do you believe lower company tax rates would bring wider economic benefits to the community or not?” and those who responded were then asked: “Do you believe Federal Government spending on social welfare payments should be reduced, increased, or stay about the same?”

Results analysed by Roy Morgan Helix Personas are available on a subscription basis.
www.HelixPersonas.com.au


Question:

Australians were asked (February 17-19, 2017):

Q1:“Do you believe lower company tax rates would bring wider economic benefits to the community or not?”

Total

Electors

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Other

Can’t say

Non
Electors

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

39

38

62

22

5

35

51

43

No, Not

61

62

38

78

95

65

49

57

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Total

Gender

Age

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

39

42

37

27

30

39

44

50

No, Not

61

58

63

73

70

61

56

50

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

State

Region

Total

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS

City

Country

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

39

39

32

44

48

42

42

41

36

No, Not

61

61

68

56

52

58

58

59

64

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Question:

Australians were asked (February 17-19, 2017):

Q2:“Do you believe Federal Government spending on social welfare payments should be reduced, increased, or stay about the same?”

Total

Electors

L-NP

ALP

Greens

Other

Can’t say

Non
Electors

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Reduced

28

27

43

15

3

27

18

29

Increased

35

36

19

43

70

45

52

34

About the Same

37

37

38

42

27

28

30

37

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Total

Gender

Age

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Reduced

28

32

24

25

13

27

36

35

Increased

35

29

42

42

35

40

33

27

About the Same

37

39

34

33

52

33

31

38

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

 

State

Region

Total

NSW

VIC

QLD

WA

SA

TAS

City

Country

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Reduced

28

27

23

36

36

16

31

27

29

Increased

35

33

46

29

24

40

34

35

36

About the Same

37

40

31

35

40

44

35

38

35

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4