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Women preferred to lead both major parties again; L-NP Coalition: Bishop (30%) cf. Turnbull (27%); ALP: Plibersek (26%) cf. Albanese (19%) and Shorten (15%).

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last three nights March 14-16, 2017 with an Australia-wide cross section of 534 electors.

A telephone Morgan Poll over three nights last week (March 14-16, 2017) finds:

  • Foreign Minister Julie Bishop is once again preferred as Coalition leader by 30% (down 4% since October 2016) electors ahead of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull 27% (up 2%). Both are well ahead of former Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s 9% (down 5%), Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce 5% (down 1%) and Immigration Minister Peter Dutton 5% - the subject of recent media speculation about leadership.

  • However, amongst L-NP supporters Turnbull is still the preferred Coalition Leader 38% (up 3%) now just ahead of Bishop 34% (up 9%) with both well ahead of Abbott 8% (down 8%), Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison 7% (up 3%), Joyce 6% (down 4%) and Dutton 6%.

  • Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek 26% (up 1%) of electors is once again the clearly preferred Labor Leader – for the sixth time in a row since April 2015, ahead of Shadow Minister for Infrastructure and Transport Anthony Albanese 19% (down 5%) and both are well ahead of current Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 15% (up 1%).

  • ALP supporters also clearly favour Plibersek 34% (up 6%) as ALP Leader over current Leader Bill Shorten 23% (down 6%) with both well ahead of Anthony Albanese 12% (down 9%).

  • If Mr Turnbull were to resign as Prime Minister, a plurality of electors prefer Julie Bishop as Prime Minister 43% (down 7%) ahead of Tony Abbott 11% (down 5%). L-NP supporters agree with a clear preference for Bishop 51% (up 6%) ahead of Scott Morrison 13% (up 4%) and Abbott 12% (down 7%).

  • If Labor Leader Bill Shorten were to resign for any reason, Tanya Plibersek 31% (up 1%) is preferred as ALP Leader ahead of Anthony Albanese 22% (down 5%). Support amongst ALP voters heavily favours Plibersek 41% (up 4%) streets ahead of Albanese 16% (down 12%).

Gary Morgan says:

“In March 2017 for the second straight survey Australian electors prefer women to lead both the major parties ahead of the incumbent Prime Minister and Opposition Leader.

“Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop is preferred Coalition Leader 30% (down 4% since October 2016) ahead of current Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull 27% (up 2%) and Deputy Labor Leader Tanya Plibersek 26% (up 1%) has extended her lead as preferred ALP Leader over Shadow Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese 19% (down 5%) and current ALP Leader Bill Shorten 15% (up 1%).

“Plibersek has now been the preferred ALP Leader six times in a row since early 2015 although the rules regarding the ALP Leadership mean it’s unlikely she can replace Shorten before the next Federal Election due in 2019. The relatively new ALP Leadership rules, instituted by former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, may be the only roadblock standing between a Federal Election contested in 2019 by two women given Turnbull’s increasingly shaky hold on the Liberal Leadership.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights last week, March 14-16, 2017 with an Australia-wide cross section of 534 electors.


Preferred Coalition Leader

Electors were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Oct 20-22,
2015

May 4-5,
2016

Oct 24-26,
2016

Mar 14-16,
2017

L-NP

ALP

Greens

One
Nation#

Ind/
Other#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Bishop

12

24

34

30

34

34

31

17

15

Turnbull

64

41

25

27

38

25

22

13

25

Abbott

8

7

14

9

8

5

4

32

15

Joyce

3

6

6

5

6

3

4

9

0

Dutton

n/a

n/a

n/a

5

6

1

2

14

18

Morrison

4

5

3

4

7

3

3

0

5

Pyne

1

2

2

4

0

6

3

3

8

Robb

0

2

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Someone else

*

1

1

1

0

1

4

0

0

Can’t say

8

12

15

15

1

22

27

12

14

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%. Former Trade Minister Andrew Robb was removed from this question after resigning from Parliament at the 2016 Federal Election. #Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

 

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Malcolm Turnbull

Electors who preferred Malcolm Turnbull were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition Leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Julie Bishop, Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton, Tony Abbott, Christopher Pyne and Barnaby Joyce?

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Malcolm Turnbull.

Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Oct 20-22,
2015

May 4-5,
2016

Oct 24-26,
2016

Mar 14-16,
2017

L-NP

ALP

Greens

One
Nation#

Ind/
Other#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Bishop

46

42

50

43

51

47

42

19

19

Abbott

10

11

16

11

12

6

4

35

26

Joyce

7

9

7

7

9

4

4

9

0

Morrison

15

12

6

7

13

5

3

6

9

Dutton

n/a

n/a

n/a

5

7

1

2

14

18

Pyne

4

5

3

5

2

7

3

3

8

Robb

2

3

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

Someone else

1

2

1

1

*

1

4

0

0

Can’t say

15

16

17

21

6

29

38

14

20

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

*Indicates support for this candidate of less than 0.5%. Former Trade Minister Andrew Robb was removed from this question after resigning from Parliament at the 2016 Federal Election. #Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.


Preferred Labor Leader

Electors were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer?”

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Oct 20-22,
2015

May 4-5,
2016

Oct 24-26,
2016

Mar 14-16,
2017

L-NP

ALP

Greens

One
Nation#

Ind/
Other#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Plibersek

27

22

25

26

17

34

45

21

12

Albanese

23

20

24

19

28

12

9

22

20

Shorten

9

14

14

15

14

23

10

10

17

Swan

10

8

5

7

10

3

4

8

9

Macklin

4

3

3

5

3

3

9

11

4

Bowen

5

8

2

4

4

5

1

7

0

Burke

5

3

3

4

5

4

3

0

9

Someone else

2

1

2

2

2

3

2

0

3

Can’t say

15

21

22

18

17

13

17

21

26

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.


Preferred Labor Leader other than Bill Shorten

Electors who preferred Bill Shorten as ALP Leader were then asked:

Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who would you prefer out of: Anthony Albanese, Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin, Chris Bowen, Tanya Plibersek or Tony Burke?

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Bill Shorten.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull

Analysis by Federal Voting Intention

Oct 20-22,
2015

May 4-5,
2016

Oct 24-26,
2016

Mar 14-16,
2017

L-NP

ALP

Greens

One
Nation#

Ind/
Other#

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Plibersek

28

25

30

31

22

41

49

24

15

Albanese

24

23

27

22

30

16

12

25

23

Swan

11

9

6

8

10

5

5

10

9

Macklin

5

4

4

6

4

5

11

11

4

Burke

6

4

4

5

6

4

3

0

9

Bowen

6

10

3

4

4

6

1

7

0

Someone else

2

1

2

2

2

3

2

0

3

Can’t say

18

24

24

22

22

20

17

23

37

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:     

+61 3 9224 5213  

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:       

+61 3 9224 5215  

+61 411 129 093


The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.