Turnbull (49%) easily leads Shorten (32%) as ‘Better PM’ but poor approval ratings for both leaders

Now 49% (up 2% from October 2016) of Australian electors prefer Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as ‘Better Prime Minister’ ahead of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten 32% (unchanged) according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over three nights last week, March 14-16, 2017 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 534 electors.

However, both leaders have a majority of electors disapproving of their job performance. Prime Minister Turnbull’s approval rating as Prime Minister was virtually unchanged at 30% (down 1%) and his disapproval rating also virtually unchanged at 54% (up 1%) while Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating was down 3% to 28% (down 1%) and his disapproval rating soared, up 7% to 56%.

Preferred Prime Minister

Analysis by Gender – Turnbull holds similar lead amongst both men and women

Men: Turnbull 49% (up 2%) cf. Shorten 34% (up 1%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 15% (up 1%);

Women: Turnbull 49% (up 2%) cf. Shorten 30% (down 1%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 19% (up 3%).

Analysis by Party – Turnbull leads among L-NP electors and Shorten well ahead with ALP electors

L-NP supporters: Turnbull 92% (up 6%) cf. Shorten 2% (down 2%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 90% (up 8%);

ALP supporters: Turnbull 20% (up 6%) cf. Shorten 65% (unchanged). Lead to Mr. Shorten 45% (down 6%);

Greens supporters: Turnbull 16% (down 6%) cf. Shorten 60% (up 6%). Lead to Mr. Shorten 44% (up 12%);

*One Nation supporters: Turnbull 42% (up 9%) cf. Shorten 23% (up 8%). Lead to Mr Turnbull 19 (up 1%)%;

*Ind/Others supporters: Turnbull 58% (up 7%) cf. Shorten 12% (down 13%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 46% (up 20%).

Analysis by State – Turnbull leads across all States except Victoria and Tasmania

NSW: Turnbull 51% (up 7%) cf. Shorten 27% (down 9%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 24% (up 16%);

Victoria: Turnbull 42% (down 1%) cf. Shorten 42% (up 10%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 0% (down 11%);

Queensland: Turnbull 60% (up 9%) cf. Shorten 22% (unchanged). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 38% (up 9%);

WA: Turnbull 47% (down 3%) cf. Shorten 32% (up 2%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 15% (down 5%);

*SA: Turnbull 52% (up 1%) cf. Shorten 29% (down 8%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 23% (up 9%);

*Tasmania: Turnbull 23% (down 30%) cf. Shorten 63% (up 30%). Lead to Mr. Shorten 40% (up 60%);

Job Performance – Approve/Disapprove

Less than a third of Australian electors, 30% (down 1%) approve of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of his job as Prime Minister while 54% (up 1%) disapprove and 16% (unchanged) can’t say.

A clear majority of men, 56% (down 2%) disapprove of Turnbull’s handling of the job as Prime Minister compared to less than a third of men 31% (down 2%) who approve. Over half, 53% (up 5%), of women disapprove of Turnbull’s handling of the job compared to only 30% (up 2%) who approve.

Australian electors have a similarly poor view of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader. A majority, 56% (up 7%) disapprove, while only 28% (down 3%) approve and a large number of electors, 16% (down 4%), can’t say.

Neither gender is impressed with Shorten’s handling of the job with well over a half of all men 57% (up 8%) disapproving of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of the job while 30% (down 5%) approve. Among women 56% (up 8%) disapprove cf. 27% (down 4%) approve.

Gary Morgan says:

“Today’s special telephone Morgan Poll reveals bad news for both major party political leaders in Australia. While Malcolm Turnbull is clearly preferred over Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (49% cf. 32%), a majority of electors disapprove of the job performance of both leaders. Turnbull is clearly preferred to Shorten in four States (NSW, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia) whereas Shorten draws level with Turnbull in his home-state of Victoria and leads in Tasmania.

“A clear majority 54% (up 1%) of electors disapprove of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s handling of his job compared to only 30% (down 1%) who approve while an even larger majority of Australian electors, 56% (up 7%) disapprove of Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s handling of his job with only 28% (down 3%) approving. Clearly, neither leader inspires any confidence in the Australian electorate.

“In addition, a separate telephone Morgan Poll conducted in conjunction with this ‘Better Prime Minister’ survey shows that two women – Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop and Deputy ALP Leader Tanya Plibersek are for the second straight survey nominated by Australian electors as the preferred leader of both major parties. Bishop (30%) is preferred over Turnbull (27%) as L-NP Coalition Leader and Plibersek (26%) is preferred over Albanese (19%) and Shorten (15%) as ALP Leader.

“The key difference between both major parties in terms of leadership is that the Liberal Leadership can change at a moment’s notice if two MPs call for a leadership spill and that motion is seconded whereas there is no prospect of a change in ALP Leadership before the next Federal Election, due in mid-2019, unless Shorten decides to resign for whatever reason.

“The way the rules are for determining leadership in both parties means it is perhaps increasingly likely that closer to the next Federal Election the Liberal Party will follow the formula used in late 2015 when they replaced unpopular then Prime Minister Tony Abbott with Turnbull and won last year’s Federal Election. If the Liberals follow this successful leadership change formula again current Deputy Liberal Leader Julie Bishop may find herself as the Liberal Prime Minister facing re-election in 2019.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over three nights last week, March 14-16, 2017, with an Australia-wide cross section of 534 electors. *Sample sizes of under 50 electors in SA & Tasmania and with voters for One Nation and Independents/Others should be treated with caution.

Visit the Roy Morgan Online Store to browse our Voter Profiles by electorate, detailed Voting Intention Demographics Reports and Most important Political Issue Reports (all 150 electorates ranked by an issue).

Better Prime Minister: Turnbull v Shorten

Electors were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Malcolm Turnbull and Mr. Bill Shorten. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister – Mr. Turnbull or Mr. Shorten?”

*The first special Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted on Tuesday September 15, 2015 – the day Malcolm Turnbull was sworn in as Australia’s 29^th Prime Minister replacing former Prime Minister Tony Abbott. **The second special Snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted immediately after the close 2016 Federal Election.

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Approval of Leaders – Malcolm Turnbull v Bill Shorten

Prime Minister: Malcolm Turnbull

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Turnbull is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

Opposition Leader: Bill Shorten

Electors were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Shorten is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution.

For further information: