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National Party remains ‘dead-locked’ with Labour/Greens alliance in May pre-Budget

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 856 electors between May 1-14, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.
New Zealand’s governing National Party is unchanged with 43% support in May virtually level with the opposition Labour/Greens on 42.5% (unchanged) before this week’s New Zealand Budget delivered a second straight annual surplus.

The tight result means the strong support for New Zealand First on 10% (down 0.5%) once gain has Winston Peters’ party in a strong position to decide which parties will form New Zealand’s next Government after September’s election.

  • The overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down slightly to 45% with National support unchanged at 43%, support for the Maori Party increasing 0.5% to 1.5% while Act NZ was down 1% to 0.5% and support for United Future was unchanged at 0%.

  • Support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance was unchanged at 42.5% with support for Labour down 1% to 28.5%, while support for the Greens rose 1% to 14%. Support for New Zealand First was down 0.5% to 10%.

  • Of the parties currently outside Parliament support for the Mana party rose 1% to 1%, while support for their allies the Internet party remained at 0%, support for the Conservative Party was down 0.5% to 0% and support for Independents/Others was up 0.5% to 1.5%.

New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating up in May

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased 4.5pts to 133.5pts in May with 60.5% of NZ electors (up 2.5%) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ cf. 27% of NZ electors (down 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman of Roy Morgan Research, says the large Budget surplus could be a turning point for National allowing the Government to substantially increase spending across several important areas of the New Zealand economy:

“Before yesterday’s New Zealand Budget support for National on 43% and for a potential Labour/ Greens alliance on 42.5% was virtually ‘dead-locked’ with NZ First on 10% support in a strong position to decide who will run New Zealand’s next Government.

“However, the predicted $1.62 billion surplus handed down by new Treasurer Steven Joyce is likely to be a significant ‘game-changer’ for the Government. The projected Budget surpluses over the next few years allows the National Government to campaign robustly on economic management and gives the Government the flexibility to target new spending where it’s most needed.

“Joyce announced $11 billion of new infrastructure spending over the next four years in addition to the $21 billion already planned and the adjustments to tax thresholds and social spending will result in a $6.5 billion increase to family incomes as New Zealand deals with record inward immigration which have fuelled a house price boom – particularly in Auckland.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 856 electors between May 1-14, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.


For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0