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ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence stability masks volatility in the sub-indices - down 0.5pts to 112.4
June 20 2017
- Finding No.
Consumer Confidence Press Release
This weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,121 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over last weekend June 18/19, 2017.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence eased slightly (-0.4%) to 112.4 this week. Broadly, though, confidence has recovered from the mid-May low. That said, there continues to be significant volatility between sub-indices.
ANZ’s Senior Economist, Jo Masters, commented:
- Households’ expectations of current economic conditions edged up 0.6% last week, after a sharp 5.2% decline the previous week. Households’ confidence in future economic conditions rose 2.8%, however, more than offsetting the 2.6% fall in the previous week.
- Households’ views around current financial conditions dropped a sharp 8.1%, unwinding most of the 9.4% jump in the previous week. Meanwhile, views towards future conditions edged up another 0.2% following a 1.5% rise in the week before last. This sub-index is at its highest point in seven weeks.
- The ‘time to buy a major household item’ sub-index rose 2.0% last week. This sub-index has risen quite sharply since early May and is close to its peak at the start of the year.
- Inflation expectations remain unchanged, at 4.2% on a four-week moving average basis.
“Despite this week’s fall, ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence has been trending up in recent weeks. The 4-week average is at its highest point in nine weeks and is within striking distance of the long term average.
"Consumers seemingly agree with the RBA’s assessment that the weakness in GDP is temporary and have chosen to focus on the recent string of solid employment reports, including last week’s data, which showed a sharp drop in the unemployment rate to 5.5% in May, the lowest since March 2013.
"We believe that there is still some scope for further employment gains (as official data catch up to forward indicators), and this will likely support confidence in the near term. That being said, once this catch up is complete job growth is likely to slow to a much more moderate pace. Meanwhile, the volatility in the sub-indices is a timely reminder of the headwinds facing households, with the sharp fall in current finances last week likely reflecting news of large energy price rises from 1 July.”
Click to view the PDF of the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Release.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
You can also view our monitor of Monthly Australian Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates.
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