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New Zealand Election on a knife edge but Labour favoured

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 866 electors during August 28 – September 10, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.
Final Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows Labour/Greens (60 seats) with Maori Party support favoured to win knife-edge election over National/NZ First/Act NZ (58 seats) as 'Jacindamania' pulls support from National and New Zealand First.

In September support for a potential Labour/Greens coalition has increased to 48.5% (up 7% from mid-August 2017) now well ahead of incumbent National on 40% (down 2.5%).

  • National remains (just) the most popular party with support of 40%, however this is a large drop of 7% since the 2014 Election which looks set to cost the party a chance of leading a new Government after next week's election.

  • Labour's support has surged on the back of new Leader Jacinda Ardern to 39.5% - up 14.4% since the 2014 Election, and up 7% since mid-August just after Ardern became Leader.

  • Greens support of 9% is down 1.7% since the Election, but unchanged on a month ago, just after former Leader Metiria Turei resigned her job in late July.

  • The surge in support for Labour has come at the expense of New Zealand First with support down 2.7% from the election to 6% and now just above the 5% threshold for winning list seats. Support for New Zealand First has plunged by 5.5% from last month.

  • Overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down 6.8% from the election to 42.5% with support for National’s coalition partners virtually unchanged: Maori Party on 2% (up 0.7%), Act NZ on 0.5% (down 0.2%) and United Future on 0% (down 0.2%) with long-time party leader Peter Dunne not recontesting his seat at this year’s election.

  • Support for the parties currently outside Parliament was 3% led by new party The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) unchanged on 2% with the Conservatives on 0.5% - down a significant 3.5% since the 2014 New Zealand Election.


2017 New Zealand Election Seats Projection

Labour (49 seats); Greens (11 seats) & Maori Party (2 seats): Total 62 seats cf. National (50 seats); NZ First (7 seats) & Act NZ (1 seat): Total 58 seats. See below for more detail.

On the eve of the 2014 New Zealand Election Roy Morgan projected a narrow win for the National/Maori Party/Act NZ/ United Future coalition on 63 seats cf. Labour/Greens/NZ First on 58 seats. The final result was 64 seats cf. 57 seats.


New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating down in September

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating decreased slightly, down 2pts to 137pts in September with 62% of NZ electors (down 0.5% from August) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ cf. 25% of NZ electors (up 1.5%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman of Roy Morgan Research, says the Maori Party’s positive reaction to new Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern looks to be decisive in an election finally balanced between Labour/Greens and National/NZ First/Act NZ:

“The momentum in New Zealand’s election campaign is clearly with the Labour Party led by new Leader Jacinda Ardern – and Labour on 39.5% - up 7% since early August are now virtually level with governing National on 40% - down 2.5% over the past month.

“However, the narrow gap between the major parties means the final outcome of the election will be decided by the second string parties – and it is here that Labour has a decisive edge.

“Labour’s natural allies the Greens have held steady on 9% over the past month following the resignation of former leader Metiria Turei while the vow by Labour Leader Jacinda Ardern to cut New Zealand’s net immigration by up to 30,000 appears to have significantly dented support for the traditionally anti-immigration New Zealand First – down 5.5% in a month to 6%.

“Today’s in-depth examination of the concerns of New Zealanders show electors continue to regard Poverty and the gap between rich and poor (16%) and the housing issues of House prices & Housing affordability (16%) and Housing shortages & Homelessness (10%) as the key issues the new Government needs to tackle.

“Ardern’s vow to tackle housing issues by removing ‘speculators unfair tax advantages’, ‘stopping foreign buyers who have no interest in New Zealand buying existing homes’, ‘getting on and building more houses’ – at least 10,000 extra houses a year and cutting New Zealand’s net annual immigration by up to 30,000 people per year address all the key issues and since becoming Leader Labour has taken support from National (down 3% since July), Greens (down 4.5%) and New Zealand First (down 2%).

“However despite this momentum, today’s final Roy Morgan New Zealand poll of the election shows the election result is likely to be tight with a Labour/Greens coalition needing Maori Party support to hold a clear majority in Parliament. Based on today’s figures a Labour/Greens/Maori Party coalition is projected to hold 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament compared to 58 seats for National/New Zealand First/Act NZ.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 866 electors during August 28 – September 10, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

Projected 2017 New Zealand Election Seat Breakdown

ELECTION RESULTS

National

Labour

Green
Party

NZ
First

Maori
Party*

Act
NZ

United
Future

Conservatives*

Other

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

2005 NZ ELECTION

September 17, 2005

39.10

41.10

5.30

5.72

2.12

1.51

2.67

n/a

2.48

SEATS

48

50

6

7

4

2

3

n/a

1

61-60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2008 NZ ELECTION

November 8, 2008

44.93

33.99

6.72

4.07

2.39

3.65

0.87

n/a

3.38

SEATS

58

43

9

0

5

5

1

n/a

1

69-53

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2011 NZ ELECTION

November 26, 2011

47.31

27.48

11.06

6.59

1.43

1.07

0.60

2.65

1.81

SEATS

59

34

14

8

3

1

1

0

0

64-57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014 NZ ELECTION

September 20, 2014

47.04

25.13

10.70

8.66

1.32

0.69

0.22

3.97

2.27

SEATS

60

32

14

11

2

1

1

0

0

64-57

ROY MORGAN NZ POLL

Aug 28 – Sep 10, 2017

40

39.5

9

6

2

0.5

0

0.5

2.5

PROJECTED SEATS:

50

49

11

7

2

1

0

0

0

62-58

GOVERNING  COALITIONS:

LABOUR

 NATIONAL

 




For further information:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093



Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

1,500

±2.6

±2.2

±1.5

±1.1

2,000

±2.2

±1.9

±1.3

±1.0