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2.498 million Australians (18.9%) now unemployed or under-employed

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 551,410 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – September 2017 and includes 3,986 face-to-face interviews in September 2017.
In September 1.202 million Australians were unemployed (9.1% of the workforce); an increase of 101,000 (up 0.6%) on a year ago. In addition 1.296 million Australians (9.8% of the workforce) are now under-employed and looking for work or looking for more work, up a significant 294,000 (2.1%) in a year.

  • 2.498 million (18.9%) Australians were unemployed or under-employed in September – marking two whole years (24 straight months) more than 2 million Australians have been looking for work or looking for more work;

  • 11,972,000 Australians were employed in September – an increase of 143,000 over the past year (this represents an average of 11,900 jobs added per month);

  • The increase in employment over the past year was driven by a large jump in part-time employment which rose 433,000 to 4,375,000 offsetting a decrease in full-time employment which fell 290,000 to 7,597,000 during the same period;

  • Roy Morgan real unemployment figures of 9.1% for September are substantially higher than the current ABS estimate for August 2017 (5.6%).
Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment & Under-employment - September 2017 - 18.9%Source: Roy Morgan Single Source October 2005 – September 2017. Average monthly interviews 4,000.


Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says the growth in part-time employment is obscuring the stagnation of Australian full-time employment:

“The Roy Morgan employment estimates have consistently shown the Australian economy is generating new jobs, however the increase in employment is heavily concentrated in part-time jobs rather than full-time – and that trend has continued.

“Over the past year a net 143,000 new jobs were created since September 2016 – however this increase consisted of 433,000 part-time jobs (about 37,000 per month) and a stagnation in full-time employment which fell 290,000 (about  24,000 per month) during the same period.

“These trends explain why 2.498 million Australians (18.9% of the workforce) are either unemployed – 1.202 million (9.1%) or under-employed – 1.296 million (9.8%). September marks two straight years with more than 2 million Australians looking for work or looking for more work.

“September also marked the fourth anniversary of the election of the Abbott/Turnbull Government and since September 2013 full-time employment has increased only 184,000 to 7,597,000 (growth of about 4,000 full-time jobs per month) whilst part-time employment is up a massive 618,000 to 4,375,000 (about 13,000 part-time jobs per month).

“Unfortunately the increasing problem of persistent and rising under-employment won’t be helped by the closure this month of Australia’s final automotive manufacturing factories with Holden and Toyota shutting their doors, and nor will employers be looking to put on more workers when they consider the rising cost of energy which is a direct result of energy policy mismanagement by both State and Federal Governments.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly face-to-face interviews of 551,410 Australians aged 14 and over between January 2007 – September 2017 and includes 3,986 face-to-face interviews in September 2017.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not release this figure in their monthly unemployment survey results).

Roy Morgan Unemployed and ‘Under-employed’* Estimates

Unemployed or

‘Under-employed’*

Unemployed

Unemployed looking for

‘Under-employed’*

Full-time

Part-time

2016

‘000

%

‘000

%

‘000

‘000

‘000

%

Jan-Mar 2016

2,496

19.1

1,362

10.4

639

723

1,134

8.7

Apr-Jun 2016

2,322

18.1

1,317

10.2

637

680

1,005

7.8

Jul-Sep 2016

2,296

17.8

1,266

9.8

574

692

1,030

8.0

Oct-Dec 2016

2,446

18.9

1,191

9.2

635

556

1,255

9.7

2017

Jan-Mar 2017

2,377

17.9

1,261

9.5

591

670

1,116

8.4

Apr-Jun 2017

2,525

19.0

1,234

9.3

607

627

1,291

9.7

Jul-Sep 2017

2,508

19.1

1,254

9.6

598

656

1,254

9.5

Months

August 2016

2,249

17.5

1,332

10.4

544

788

917

7.1

September 2016

2,103

16.2

1,101

8.5

532

569

1,002

7.7

October 2016

2,454

19.1

1,188

9.2

626

562

1,266

9.9

November 2016

2,299

17.6

1,199

9.2

629

570

1,100

8.4

December 2016

2,584

20.0

1,186

9.2

650

536

1,398

10.8

January 2017

2,402

17.9

1,295

9.7

634

661

1,107

8.2

February 2017

2,390

17.9

1,253

9.4

576

677

1,137

8.5

March 2017

2,340

17.7

1,236

9.3

563

673

1,104

8.4

April 2017

2,307

17.6

1,217

9.3

612

605

1,090

8.3

May 2017

2,622

20.0

1,284

9.8

659

625

1,338

10.2

June 2017

2,645

19.6

1,200

8.9

550

650

1,445

10.7

July 2017

2,462

18.8

1,236

9.4

568

668

1,226

9.4

August 2017

2,565

19.7

1,324

10.2

639

685

1,241

9.5

September 2017 2,498 18.9 1,202 9.1 586 616 1,296 9.8

*Workforce includes those employed and those looking for work – the unemployed.


For further information
:

Contact

Office

Mobile

Gary Morgan:

+61 3 9224 5213

+61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:

+61 3 9224 5215

+61 411 129 093

Unemployment Data Tables

Roy Morgan Research Employment Estimates (2001-2017)

Roy Morgan Research Unemployment & Under-employment Estimates (2007-2017)

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2017)

ABS Employment Estimates (1992-2017)

Roy Morgan Monthly Unemployment - September 2017 - 9.1%

Roy Morgan Quarterly Unemployment - September Quarter 2017 - 9.6%


ROY MORGAN MEASURES REAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRALIA

NOT THE ‘PERCEPTION’ OF UNEMPLOYMENT – JUNE 8, 2012

http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/Files/Papers/2012/20120603.pdf

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. A person is classified as unemployed if they are looking for work, no matter when.

The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies a person as unemployed if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate. Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published.


Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size

% Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

5,000

±1.4

±1.2

±0.8

±0.6

10,000

±1.0

±0.9

±0.6

±0.4

20,000

±0.7

±0.6

±0.4

±0.3

50,000

±0.4

±0.4

±0.3

±0.2