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Roy Morgan spot on for Same Sex Marriage Survey

Analysing the results of the Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey we were confident enough to headline the article: Australians are voting in favour of same sex marriage - full results of the Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey taken on the weekend of October 6-8, 2017 with a representative cross-section of 1,554 Australians aged 18+ can be found here.

The ABS today released the results of the Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey showing 61.6% of Australians support changing the law to allow same sex couples to marry and 38.4% of Australians are opposed.

The final ABS results are remarkably similar to the results of a Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey taken in early October which showed 61.5% of Australians voting ‘Yes’ on the survey while the remaining 38.5% of respondents were either voting ‘No’, didn’t answer the SMS question or had no intention of voting.

The ABS Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey received responses from 12,691,234 eligible Australians with 7,817,247 Australians in favour (61.6%) and 4,873,987 (38.4%) opposed to the change and the Federal Government allocated $122 million for the ABS to run the survey.

Analysing the results of the Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey we were confident enough to headline the article: Australians are voting in favour of same sex marriage - full results of the Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey taken on the weekend of October 6-8, 2017 with a representative cross-section of 1,554 Australians aged 18+ can be found here.

Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey Questions – October 6-8, 2017:

“Have you voted in the Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey?” Respondents who have voted or who intend to vote were then asked: “How did you vote/How will you vote. Should the law be changed to allow same sex couples to marry?” All respondents who replied to a question were then asked: “And why do you say that” – Detailed verbatim responses included in the original release are available to view here.

Analysis by Voting Preference: How did you vote/How will you vote?

Analysis of supporters of various political parties shows 92% of Greens supporters are voting ‘Yes’ to the change along with 77% of ALP supporters. However, the L-NP’s prevarication on the issue is clear when one looks at the voting statistics for Liberal supporters and National supporters – less than half of the supporters of these parties have so far voted, or intend to vote ‘Yes’ to the proposal.

Total

Liberal

National

ALP

Greens

Other

Can’t say

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

61.5

40.5

33

77

92

63

56.5

No

17.5

30.5

41.5

8

0.5

20.5

13

No answer or Not voting

21

29

25.5

15

7.5

16.5

30.5

Total NOT Yes

38.5

59.5

67

23

8

37

43.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Analysis by Gender & Age: How did you vote/How will you vote?

Analysing voting patterns by gender shows that a clear majority of women (66.5%) are voting in favour of the reform, a higher proportion than for men (56%) and nearly twice as many men (23%) say they are voting no compared to only 12.5% of women.

Analysing by age group shows a clear correlation between voting patterns given someone’s age with 81% of 18-24yr olds voting ‘Yes’, and also large majorities of those aged 25-34 (70%) and those aged 35-49 (69.5%). However, a bare majority of those aged 50-64 (52%) are voting ‘Yes’ and less than half of those aged 65+ (48.5%) are voting ‘Yes’.

Total

Gender

Age

Men

Women

18-24

25-34

35-49

50-64

65+

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes

61.5

56

66.5

81

70

69.5

52

48.5

No

17.5

23

12.5

6.5

15.5

14.5

23

21.5

No answer or Not voting

21

21

21

12.5

14.5

16

25

30

Total NOT Yes

38.5

44

33.5

19

30

30.5

48

51.5

TOTAL

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan, says:

“The verdict from Australia’s Marriage Law Postal Survey is finally in and Australians have ‘voted’ overwhelmingly to legalise same sex marriage with 61.6% in favour and only 38.4% opposed.

“The Marriage Law Postal Survey conducted by the ABS cost $122 million and received just under 12.7 million responses from Australians, an impressive response rate of over 79%, however Roy Morgan surveyed a representative cross-section of just over 1,500 Australians a month ago and predicted that 61.5% of Australians were voting in favour of the change compared to 38.5% that were either voting ‘No’, weren’t prepared to answer the question or were not planning to vote.

“Although we suggested the small proportion of those surveyed who weren’t prepared to answer the question introduced a degree of doubt into drawing firm conclusions on the final figures, we were confident the Roy Morgan results showed a victory for the ‘Yes’ case was a practical certainty.

“Analysing the Roy Morgan results by political party affiliation show that it is supporters of the Greens (92% supporting the Yes case) and the ALP (77%) that helped carry the postal survey across the threshold into the majority whilst only a minority of Liberal supporters (40.5%) and National supporters (33%) indicated they were voting ‘Yes’. These results clearly illustrate the dilemma faced by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in dealing with the issue.

“Analysing the results by Gender and Age shows that far more Women (66.5%) than Men (56%) were voting ‘Yes’ whereas analysing different age groups shows support was clearly highest amongst the youngest age cohort of 18-24 (81% voting ‘Yes’), very strong for 25-34yr olds (70%) and 35-49yr olds (69.5%) and dropped off for those aged 50-64 (52%) and 65+ (48.5%).

“The results of Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey a month ago shows using the correct methodology and sampling techniques it is possible to interview a relatively small portion of Australians and receive a robust and accurate picture of how the Australian community feels about an issue.

“The Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey allows for analysis by diverse demographics including Age, Gender, State, Personal or Household Income, Employment Status, Socio-Economic Status and also more involved psychographic segmentation and analytical tools including Helix Personas.”


Roy Morgan SMS Polling was extremely accurate at both the last two Federal Elections.
Results analysed by Roy Morgan Helix Personas are available on a subscription basis.
www.HelixPersonas.com.au

Finding No. 7374 – This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Survey was conducted in preparation for an appearance on ABCTV’s Q&A program on Monday October 9, 2017 with a representative cross-section of 1,554 Australians over the weekend, Friday October 6 – Sunday October 8, 2017. They were asked “Have you voted in the Australian Marriage Law Postal Survey?” Respondents who have voted or who intend to vote were then asked: “How did you vote/How will you vote. Should the law be changed to allow same sex couples to marry?”


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